Ahead of US election, trust in voting results alarmingly low

Setting a new record last week, more than 310,000 people cast their ballots on Tuesday, October 15, the first day of early voting in the Southern US state of Georgia.

In the US, the day of the presidential election is never a Sunday or a day off work, but an ordinary Tuesday in November. Long lines often form outside polling stations on election day, and in most states people who don't have time to stand in line for hours can cast their vote several weeks ahead of the election, which this year falls on November 5.

In Georgia, the number of people who decided to take advantage of the first day of early voting was almost double the number than in the 2020 presidential election. If Georgia's State Election Board — the authority responsible for conducting the election — had had its way, election workers would have been very busy indeed on November 5. In late September, the board ruled that the votes in Georgia would have to be counted by hand instead of by machine.

Janelle King, one of the five board members, agreed that this took longer, but told The Associated Press: "What I don't want to do is set a precedent that we're OK with speed over accuracy."

Who counts better — man or machine?

The idea that a human can count votes more accurately than a machine might seem plausible to some. But Rachael Cobb, a political scientist at Suffolk University in Boston, said there's a simple reason why that is not, in fact, the case.

"Humans make mistakes, that's part of being human. Machines also make mistakes, but we can test, audit and fix them," Cobb, an expert on election administration, told DW. Compared with machines, she argued, "humans make more mistakes because we get tired."

This was also the view of the judge who recently blocked plans for a manual ballot count. In his written explanation, Judge Robert McBurney commented that the hand count rule was "too much, too late."

Poll workers would not have received any "formal, cohesive, or consistent training," wrote McBurney. A change in the electoral process so close the election would add "uncertainty and disorder" and would not be in the public interest. As a result, votes in Georgia this year will be counted in the usual way: by machine.

Declining trust in election legitimacy

This to-ing and fro-ing highlights a problem the US has had for years: Fewer and fewer Americans believe that democratic elections in their country are completely aboveboard. A survey by the polling institute Gallup in September found that 19% of all participants had no trust whatsoever in the legitimacy of the election result. In 2004, this figure was only 6%.

Distrust is particularly widespread among Republicans, with just 28% believing the upcoming election will be conducted fairly. At the last election, in 2020, this figure was 44%, and four years earlier, when Donald Trump beat the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, a majority of Republicans — 55% — believed the election was legitimate and fair.

"If your candidate wins, you have faith that everything with the election was aboveboard," said Cobb.

Republicans' trust in elections has dropped significantly, driven in part by Trump's insistence that the 2020 election was "stolen" from him. His supporters claim the results were manipulated, depriving Trump of victory. These conspiracy theories have been debunked by meticulous recounts and numerous court rulings, but Trump has consistently refused to acknowledge his loss.

Trump supporters control Georgia's State Election Board

Among the Trump loyalists perpetuating the election lie are three members of Georgia's five-person election board. This majority could play a decisive role in November in the hotly contested state, where Trump and his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris are currently neck and neck.

Four years ago, Georgia was one of the states in which results were so close that they were contested in several districts, and Republicans insisted on recounts before the results could be certified. Election boards play a key role in the process — and since this past May, Trump supporters dominate the board in Georgia.

Cobb suspects the attempt by the three board members to introduce a manual count may have been a political strategy, though this can't be proved. "Saying 'whatever we are doing is wrong, so let's try another method' is sowing doubt about the old methods, even when the alternative isn't better," she said.

The statements by the the Election Board are likely to cast doubt on the results in Georgia — especially if the numbers don't go in Trump's favor.

Could Georgia's Election Board influence the outcome?

Could a pro-Trump election board responsible for counting and certifying the election result in a single state influence the overall outcome of the election? "If the margin is big and the number of votes the losing candidate would have to get would be impossible to achieve, it [a board with a pro-Trump majority] doesn't matter," said Cobb.

But Georgia is a swing state, one where, historically, both Democrats and Republicans have won — and in 2020, the margin of victory for the Democrats under Joe Biden was just 0.2%. If the election result in Georgia turns out to be decisive in whether Harris or Trump moves into the White House — which is not out of the question — things could get very tense indeed.

Previous elections have shown that some people will always refuse to believe official results. According to Cobb, though, US elections are generally well-organized.

"Poll workers work hard on election day to get things right," she emphasized. "We have many laws in place to ensure that voters are who they say they are, that their vote gets counted, and that the intent of the voters is reflected in the results."

This article was originally written in German.