As Serbia prepares to vote, Vucic's party dominates campaign

On a Saturday in early December, hundreds of buses lined up along the wide streets of New Belgrade, a district in the capital. Crowds streamed toward the Belgrade Arena, one of Europe's largest sports venues, to attend the main election rally of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) . One man commanded all the attention: Serbia's autocratic president, Aleksandar Vucic.

"Our village leader organized the trip to Belgrade," said one man sitting on a nearby bench, swigging from a beer can. He said he was from a village in the country's north. "Of course I support Vucic. He gave us all money, most recently 10,000 dinars (€85/$94) for welfare recipients," he told DW.

Election gifts are common in Serbia. This time, Vucic decided to make one-off state budget payments to pensioners, young people and the unemployed ahead of the parliamentary and local elections on December 17. Sometimes, these payments amount to 10,000 dinars, other times a little more or a little less.

For many in Serbia, this is a lot of money. After all, the average Serbian salary is only €725 (about $800) after taxes, and an average €330 ($360) for pensioners.

Vucic has promised to raise pensions in January, provided his party wins the election. The president himself is not standing for election, as he secured a second term in office last year. That said, this entire election revolves around him. Every SNS electoral list, even in the smallest village, bears his name.

Vucic a polarizing president

Belgrade weekly magazine Vreme has described Vucic as the "beggar king," saying he casts himself as a man of the people who distributes money, builds roads and railroads and creates jobs.

The opposition, in turn, has accused Vucic of ruling Serbia with an iron fist and playing off the European Union, Russia and China against each other. Critics have said Vucic's government maintains close ties with the mafia, and is deeply corrupt. Yet in his near daily television appearances, Vucic has accused his critics of being traitors and thieves desperate to take power.

At the election rally at Belgrade Arena, Vucic boomed: "Serbia is one of the few countries in Europe today that has an independent agenda." But despite the roaring applause that filled the venue, not everyone here attended out of their own volition.

A young man who said he works in a hospital in a small town told DW he was pressured into attending the rally. To keep their jobs, he and his colleagues were forced to attend the rally and vote for SNS.

 "It's disastrous, but what can I do?" he said.

EU accession off the agenda

Recent polls have shown that SNS in the lead. Although the party is unlikely to secure a landslide victory, it should be enough for SNS to continue its coalition with the Socialists and other smaller parties.

The main opposition, the pro-European Serbia Against Violence bloc, hopes to take second place in the election after the SNS. It was formed after two mass shootings in May 2023 shook the country to the core, sparking mass protests. The alliance has accused Vucic and his media outlets of fueling a violent atmosphere by broadcasting questionable reality shows and lambasting the opposition.

Pervasive violence and abuse of power are the most important issues ahead of the election, political scientist Srdjan Cvijic told DW. Serbia's opposition has stopped making the country's EU accession a campaign promise, in part because the process is taking too long.

"Putting the EU issue at the forefront would be political kamikaze," Cvijic told DW. "All pro-government media outlets are spreading anti-Western vitriol. What good does it do the opposition to be pilloried for this, too?"

Kosovo remains a lingering issue

The EU is also losing popularity in Serbia because of disagreements over Kosovo. Serbia does not recognize the independence of the former southern province, despite pressure from Berlin and Brussels.

According to the 2013 Brussels Agreement, Serbia should recognize Kosovar documents and stop blocking Kosovo's path to UN membership. Pristina, in return, is to allow a Serbian association of municipalities in Kosovo.

Right-wing conservative and nationalist splinter parties, constituting the third key player in the elections, are campaigning on the Kosovo issue alone. They have accused Vucic of practically giving up Kosovo by signing off on various agreements.

Yet Vucic's biggest problems are connected to Russia's war in Ukraine, said Belgrade historian and political analyst Stefan Radojkovic. Serbia has one of the highest inflation rates in Europe, owing to high fuel costs, which undermines Vucic's narrative of economic success. Also, the EU and US want to maintain control in the Balkans and force Serbia into reaching a compromise with Kosovo, Radojkovic told DW.

'Voters must be able to freely express themselves'

There is relatively little campaigning to be seen in Belgrade, with only a few billboards here and there. And the SNS is almost the only party with enough cash to pay for television ads.

A recent petition by the ProGlas pro-democracy movement did, however, cause a stir. Dozens of intellectuals, actors and athletes called on Serbians to cast their ballots on December 17. Around 170,000 people signed the petition online.

"We don't have a reasonable state in Serbia, " Vladica Cvetkovic, a well-known professor who was one of the first to sign the petition, told DW. "We lack democracy, justice and equality, we can only change that if we raise our voices."

The election will be a tight race, especially in Belgrade. Polls suggest the opposition could triumph in the capital, which would be seen as an important symbol. After all, former autocrat and warlord Slobodan Milosevic also lost Belgrade and other major cities in 1996, before being voted out of office in 2000. Both times, Milosevic only gave in after continuous protests. At the time, Vucic served as his information minister.

Yet many things would have to fall into place for Vucic to lose power. Pro-European and pro-Russian forces would, for instance, need to form a coalition against Vucic. But looking back at the 1990s should make one cautious, Sofija Mandic, a lawyer who sits on the election committee on behalf of the opposition, told DW

There is considerable evidence the government is preparing to commit election fraud, Mandic told DW. "Voters must be able to freely express themselves," she said. "And they must be prepared to stand up for their political beliefs aside from voting, if necessary."

This article was translated from German.