'Terrorism bonus'

Few politicians have sunk so low, or climbed so swiftly in the polls, as French President Francois Hollande. Since the Paris attacks nearly a month ago, the country's most unpopular leader in modern times has seen his ratings soar - more than doubling to 40 percent in one survey, his highest level in two years.

From a figure of ridicule, considered unable to fix an ailing France, Hollande has emerged as a statesman to be reckoned with, a man who has drawn a nation in mourning together and offered a blueprint to move forward.

"It's unique, we've never had this in France," says sociologist Michel Wieviorka. "And he's not the only one who is going up, up, up. Prime Minister Manuel Valls is going even higher."

Few analysts believe these highs will last. "And all recall that in the past, when a politician got a lot of support, he went down very quickly, very low," Wieviorka added.

Far cry from last year

Even so, Hollande is expected to seize the moment, using a news conference Thursday - his fifth major press event since being elected in 2012 - to showcase his achievements and outline the year's priorities.

"I don't expect he'll have any major new announcements to make," says political analyst Etienne Schweisguth, of the Institute of Political Studies in Paris, or Sciences Po. "He may talk about what the government has done to fight terrorism, and continue to nurture the idea that it has reacted well during the crisis."

Still, the occasion will offer a dramatic contrast from a similar news conference just over a year ago. It was a humiliated and embattled Hollande who faced reporters at the Elysee Presidential Palace in January 2014. Then, he was dogged by a series of bleak economic indicators and reports of an alleged affair with French actress Julie Gayet. Soon after, he split with his longtime partner Valerie Trierweiler, who went on to write a bitter tell-all, accusing the Socialist leader of mocking the poor as the "toothless ones."

Hollande is better remembered these days for marching arm-in-arm with world leaders during last month's massive free speech demonstration in Paris, and for announcing a series of immediate and longer-term policies to counter the threat of home-grown jihadism.

"The right measures were taken right away, within days after the attacks," says retired school teacher Maryse Pinheiro. A staunch Socialist, she believes the attacks have proved Hollande-doubters wrong.

"People now see he is someone who is really strong, he's not a softie," Pinheiro says. "He's a serious, pragmatic man who knows how to adapt to a situation. I think Mr. Hollande's popularity will continue to rise."

'Terrorism bonus'

History suggests otherwise. Like Hollande, US President George W. Bush also saw a bounce in the polls after the September 2001 attacks, when his popularity soared to a record 90 percent.

"When there's a major event that threatens the nation, it galvanizes national unity - which benefits the person who incarnates this unity," Schweisguth says. "But it only lasts as long as people feel the nation is threatened."

Bush kept the climate of national unity going, Schweisguth says, when he declared war against Iraq, in early 2003. Yet he left office six years later as one of the country's most unpopular presidents ever, with only a 22-percent approval rating.

In France, the sense of a threatened nation lingers. On Tuesday, a knife-wielding assailant lightly injured three soldiers on patrol outside a Jewish community center in the southern city of Nice. Hollande is also trying to consolidate a fleeting sense of national unity by reaching out to the country's Jewish and Muslim populations, who have felt victimized by the attacks.

Last month, his government also unveiled a series of proposals aimed to eradicate some of the causes of home-grown terrorism, from lessons on secularity in school, to providing more Muslim chaplains in prison and creating more jobs in disaffected suburbs considered breeding grounds for would-be jihadists. More immediately, it dispatched thousands of French soldiers and police to patrol religious institutions and other sensitive public places.

Observers give the new measures mixed reviews. "Putting the army around Jewish schools and other places is good psychologically, because it reassures citizens," says terrorism expert Mathieu Guidere, of the University of Toulouse. "But from a security point of view, since we know jihadists target the military and Jews, it's nothing more than putting two targets in the same place."

Analyst Schweisguth also raises doubts. "Whenever there's a big problem, people always think the solution is returning to more education, more morals, more values," he says. "But giving terrorist lectures on secularity won't change them."

Same old problems

For now, Hollande and his government command the spotlight. A chief rival, former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, who has recaptured the leadership of the center-right UMP party, is keeping a low profile.

For her part, far-right leader Marine Le Pen of the National Front party, was aloof after the attacks - which may prove a wise strategy, analysts say.

Few believe this period of detente will last. All the old problems haunting Hollande's government remain, and France faces local elections in March. Indeed, data released last week shows joblessness hit a new record in December, and the economy is barely growing.

"Of course, after this terrorist attack, there was a lot of emotion. Everyone wanted to be together. But today, we know that big debates are going to begin," sociologist Wieviorka says. "And all the problems that created the terrorism are still here."

Interviews around Paris also suggest a return to reality. "I think Hollande did his best - at least he didn't make any mistakes," says businesswoman Nathalie Baylac, who normally supports the center-right. "But it's not going to change the way I vote. I really don't have much confidence in any politician."