Bird Flu Heading for Europe?

Kazakhstan this week confirmed an outbreak of bird flu in the north of the country where 400 geese died at a poultry farm in late July, but scientists have yet to determine whether the virus poses a threat to humans.

The news follows the discovery of bird flu cases in 18 Siberian villages, where Russian authorities have ordered the culling of poultry. The virus found there has been identified as the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain (photo) of the avian influenza virus that has killed more than 50 people in South-East Asia since 2003.

"The disease probably arrived in Siberia from Asia through wild birds and there's no doubt that birds from there fly to Europe," Bernard Vallat, the director-general of the world animal health body OIE, told Reuters.

Different farm structure reduces risk of outbreak

But because farm structures are very different in Europe, it will be a lot more difficult for the virus to spread and infect humans, Vallat said.

"Farms here are enclosed and separated from one another," he said.

In Asia, small backyard farms and unregulated local markets have allowed the disease to take hold as well as maximizing the contact between people and infected birds. So far all humans infected by the virus had contracted it directly from the animals.

The outbreaks in Russia and Kazakhstan extend the number of countries affected by the disease. However, it is hard to quantify to what extent this increases the risk of spreading it to Europe and beyond, said Susanne Glasmacher of the Robert-Koch-Institut in Berlin, Germany's national institute charged with researching and surveying the spread of infectious diseases.

Virus mutation poses the real danger

"The real danger lies in the possibility that the deadly bird flu virus mutates into a form that transmits easily between humans," Glasmacher said.

The World Health Organization (WHO) fears that in this case the virus could kill millions of people worldwide. This is also confirmed by UK and US researchers who used computer models to simulate the spread of a mutated form of the virus.

Contingency plans in place

A senior Russian veterinary official said the Netherlands and France were potential destinations for migratory wildfowl. The Dutch farm ministry played down the threat, saying, after a risk assessment, that further measures were unnecessary.

Surveillance and eradication plans had already been stepped up following a major outbreak in the Netherlands of the less dangerous H7N7 bird flu strain in 2003, when 30 million birds were destroyed at a direct cost of more than 150 million euros ($185.5 million).

In Germany, the Robert-Koch-Institut presented the last part of a national "pandemic contingency plan" in May outlining a coordinated response by the authorities to an outbreak of the deadly virus among humans.

Vaccines key to containing outbreak in humans

Experts agree that a key to fighting a pandemic is that vaccines and anti-viral medication are available quickly and in sufficient quantities in the concerned regions.

Swiss firm Roche said this week it was in talks with the WHO on donating substantial quantities of its anti-bird flu drug Tamiflu to the UN agency. And Britain's Acambis said it was developing a potentially breakthrough new shot that could offer permanent protection against all types of flu.