Blair Bracing for Another Tough Test

Tony Blair took Britain into last year’s US–led war in Iraq, against the majority of public opinion, on the basis that Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction posed a threat.

Last week in Washington, a US Senate committee concluded that US intelligence agencies overstated Iraq’s weapons threat and relied on questionable sources.

In the same week, Blair admitted that Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction may never be found. Still, there are two areas in the Senate report which could work in Blair's favor.

“Firstly, the Senate found no evidence of political pressure being applied on the Central Intelligence Agency by President Bush and secondly, there's the admission by the senate inquiry that, in a way, everyone was hoodwinked by Saddam Hussein," Graham Leach, a London-based political analyst told Deutsche Welle.

Fresh trouble for Blair?

Last September, Blair presented to parliament a dossier on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, which said that British intelligence had established beyond doubt that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons.

This Wednesday, Lord Robin Butler, a former civil service chief, will report on the conclusions of a five-month inquiry into whether Britain fought the Iraq war on the basis of false intelligence about Baghdad’s weaponry.

But despite recent reports in the British media that Blair had come close to resigning last month, the contents of the report aren't expected to cost the Prime Minister his job.

"All the leaks and all the impressions emerging in these days before the Butler inquiry is that the welter of criticism will be directed at Britain’s intelligence services rather than the government," Leach said.

The report is expected to heavily criticize Sir Richard Dearlove, the outgoing head of Britain’s secret intelligence service MI6, and its incoming head John Scarlett.

Critical elections

On Thursday, Blair’s Labour Party faces two difficult by-elections in Birmingham and Leicester. Labour has suffered significant losses in popularity because of the Iraq war. In recent months, Blair has struggled to draw a line under the Iraq war and shift the spotlight back to the domestic agenda.

The Butler report will revive questions about Blair’s trustworthiness and will likely affect the way voters cast their ballots in the by-elections.