Blinken recalibrates US focus in Africa

While many observers see Antony Blinken's fourth visit to Africa as an American attempt to outdo rivals China and Russia for influence on the continent, trans-Atlantic trade must have been near the top of his agenda, according to African affairs analyst Emmanuel Bensah.

"The reason why US is engaging with Angola is largely because of the Lobito Corridor railway project. ... And Angola has been very fortunate in signing that agreement just last year, pumping a lot of money through USAID into the country to transport minerals," Bensah told DW.

The Lobito Corridor rail link connects mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia's Copperbelt province to the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola, helping to line the African nation's pockets.

But trade is also a major motivator on the other side of the Atlantic for the US, which "has an interest in using Angola's railway network and Atlantic ports to shore up global supply chains for itself — especially for the export of critical minerals of countries like the DRC and Zambia out of Africa," Sanusha Naidu, a senior research associate at the Institute for Global Dialogue (IGD) in Cape Town, told DW.

OPEC on the agenda

Blinken's visit also comes soon after Angola announced its plans to exit OPEC, which means that aspects of its future energy security and economy are also on Angolan President Joao Lourenco's mind.

"Angola's economy is at least going to undergo some restructuring, and having a strong partner like the US can certainly help," Naidu explained.

But there's more at stake than the logistics of minerals and fossil fuels.

Seeking a security partner

Staunch opposition in Angola to the growing influence of M23 rebels in neighboring Congo has also drawn the US in to become a dependable strategic Angolan partner, as the conflict in Congo threatens to destabilize the entire region.

Blinken's meticulously planned agenda in Africa thereforegoes beyond bilateral shoring up agreements and partnerships.

"The US is recalibrating its role in the region as a nexus of security and economic interests, since so much of the African economy is built around the trans-Atlantic trading space," said Naidu.

However, Blinken must also still woo the central African nation on a myriad of other issues. Historically, the former Portuguese colony and Communist outpost has long had close links with China and Russia.

"With China, the Angolan government under previous president [Jose Eduardo] dos Santos had a very strong relationship, especially since Beijing helped reconstruct the Lobito Corridor railway after the Angolan civil war ended just over 20 years ago," said Naidu. "This allowed Angola to connect to the rest of Africa and become a major player, especially in trade.

"However, the relationship between Luanda and Beijing didn't progress as Angola had envisioned, and now is more sedate. Angola is therefore warming up to Washington," she added.

According to Naidu, Blinken's visit is an opportunity to "to take over that space that China used to occupy."

From the Congo River to the Red Sea

The strategy seems to be working: Blinken's stopover in Angola follows a visit to the White House by Lourenco just two months ago.

And in September 2023, Lloyd Austin became the first US defense secretary to visit Angola, "engaging on military modernization and regional security" issues, according to the White House.

That's why Blinken's fourth trip to Africa is also being watched by other key players throughout Africa and beyond, as an expansion of US influence is not in the interest of all players in the region.

Furthermore, recent events in the Middle East, which have kept the secretary of state busy, also seem to have echoed back to various parts of the African continent in the meantime, making the issue of the US' future position even more interesting for all parties.

"The US is being reminded of how critical that trans-Atlantic trading corridor [with Africa] really is, with all that has been unfolding in the Red Sea in recent weeks with the Houthis," said Naidu, referring to the recent rise in attacks on ships in that region by Yemen's Houthi rebels.

The subsequent drop in the use of Red Sea trade route through the Suez Canal has resulted in a significant uptick in trans-Atlantic trade, using Angola's ports.

US 'no longer accepted as the policeman of the world'

But can the US succeed in bringing any amount of stability to Africa by simply sending its top diplomat to African capitals — especially at a time when many Africans are hesitant to warm up to the US due to its support of Israel?

"Blinken… knows that the US has lost its 'shine' as an underwriter of stability in the global context, so it needs to redefine its relationships in the region," said Naidu.

"The US is no longer accepted as the policeman of the world, so it's trying to be the firefighter of the world wherever there's conflict. But also, the US knows that it can't be firefighting in every region."

Yet there are too many proverbial fires on the Blinken's desk now.

Beyond China's influence in Africa, Yemen's conflict near the Horn of Africa and widespread African criticism against Israel's actions in Gaza, Blinken is also having to address Russia's interference on the continent, especially in the Sahel region. Yet according to Naidu, Russian influence through the Wagner mercenary group has fragmented since the mysterious death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, last year. 

Analyst Emmanuel Bensah, however, said the US' attempt to roll back whatever influence Russia and China may have on the region must be a rather daunting task.

"They [US] can attempt to compete with Russia and China. But the BRICS is already emerging as an important counter to the United States. I think the current US administration hasn't been proactive like the previous ones in anticipating how some of these things will play out," said Bensah.

Edited by: Cai Nebe