Why Sancho's move to Manchester United is now more likely

The debates and discussions surrounding a possible return of the Bundesliga during the current coronavirus pandemic have made it abundantly clear just how merciless the financial world of professional football is — if that wasn’t clear enough already.

So it should come as no surprise that clubs are not only weighing their options for a potential restart but also taking the opportunity to press ahead with transfer business.

Manchester United manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, for instance, revealed last week that he and his staff were spending their time evaluating potential targets and monitoring the market.

“Who knows how the market is going to react to this?” said the Norwegian. “Who knows which clubs need to sell players? There might just be a situation you can exploit.”

His comments will have registered in Germany, where Borussia Dortmund have long resigned themselves to the reality that Jadon Sancho will leave this summer. Dortmund’s transfer model is based on big-money sales, and Sancho will be following in the footsteps of Ousmane Dembele, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Christian Pulisic and others when he inevitably leaves the Westfalenstadion.

It’s no longer a question of “if” and not even really of “when” – but where?

Manchester United’s interest in the 20-year-old winger is no secret, and no surprise: Sancho has been involved in more goals than any other Bundesliga player this season, scoring 14 and setting up 16 more in 24 games. Crucially, he’s also English, and Solskjaer has been open about his desire to construct a side around a British spine.

The attraction for the English club is obvious – but why would Sancho want to move to Old Trafford? For all but the most ardent United supporters, arguments in that direction have been considerably harder to find.

No Champions League, no Sancho

Sancho already has three goals and three assists to his name in the Champions League – a competition United have only qualified for twice via the league since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement in 2013.

They finished sixth last season and were fifth before the current coronavirus-enforced break. And unlike when Paul Pogba returned from Juventusin 2017, United don’t have a proven, top-level manager to make up for the absence of top-level European football.

Whatever their travails on the pitch though, United have remained an industry-leading commercial juggernaut off it. But even that status has come under threat recently. The club remained third in this year’s Football Money League, but the conclusions of publishers Deloitte were not encouraging.

“With the club [currently] failing to qualify for the Champions League in 2019-20, Manchester United find themselves in a precarious position in Money League terms,” the report stated, adding that revenue was predicted to fall from £608 million ($756.8m) to £560-580m in 2019-20, even putting United at risk of being overtaken by Liverpool and Manchester City.

United’s immense financial power enabled them to attract the likes of Angel di Maria, Radamel Falcao, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Pogba  to Old Trafford in recent years, but it was a haphazard transfer policy based more on star names and muscle-flexing than a coherent, sporting plan.

None of it paints a picture of a club a rising star like Sancho would be desperate to join, and those close to the player have advised him against a move to United previously. There’s a reason Erling Haaland recently opted for western Germany rather than the north west of England.

A more attractive prospect

But how things can change. When United were beaten 0-2 at home to Burnley at the end of January, following a 2-0 defeat Anfield and not long after a 1-3 derby humiliation at home to City, no one could have foreseen that Solskjaer’s team would then go 11 games unbeaten in all competitions.

Captain Harry Maguire and fullback Aaron Wan-Bissaka – two flagship Solskjaer transfers – have excelled, and even Odion Ighalo, a more spontaneous addition, has scored goals.

The 2-0 league wins over Chelsea and City were particularly encouraging from a tactical point of view, United are within touching distance of fourth place, and the “project” suddenly looks more attractive to prospective new arrivals – whether Sancho or other targets such as Aston Villa captain Jack Grealish and Juventus defender Matthijs De Ligt.

Just as unpredictable as United’s upturn in form however was the unprecedented suspension of play across Europe due to the spread of COVID-19. But in their pursuit of Sancho, United could even stand to benefit from that.

With money from television rights accounting for “only” 42 percent of United’s revenue and wages taking up “only” 54 percent of expenditure and over £100m in cash reserves, United will likely be relatively unaffected by football’s coronavirus crisis.

As Solskjaer said: “We are one of the biggest clubs, and financially well-off. I’m sure we are capable, when we get back to normality, of doing the business that we want to.”

Another club which could emerge comparatively unscathed from a looming crisis is Borussia Dortmund, themselves sat on over €30m of capital and with matchday income accounting for only ten percent of total revenue. The Dortmund players have also accepted 10-20 percent wage cuts while matches are either not played at all or taking place behind closed doors.

“The richest clubs shouldn’t think they can get a bargain from us during this crisis,” CEO Watzke told tabloid Bild am Sonntag last week. “We don’t need to sell anybody under value.” But the Dortmund model remains a selling model, and it seems unlikely that United would be put off by Sancho’s €120m price tag.

The deal is an attractive one for both clubs, as it always has been. And if United can secure Champions League football, they might be more of an attraction for Sancho now, too.