Why are the biggest Bundesliga overachievers struggling?

Caution costing Frankfurt

When it comes to personnel changes, Frankfurt were probably the team that got hit the hardest last summer. Not only did head coach Adi Hütter leave for Borussia Mönchengladbach but so did long-standing sporting director Fredi Bobic, who joined Hertha Berlin.

Enter RB Leipzig's sporting director Markus Krösche and Wolfsburg's former head coach Oliver Glasner.

Tactically, the transition from Hütter to Glasner is a big one. The former preferred high-intensive pressing, whereas the latter has a more cautious approach.

Hutter's style involved a back five, with the fullbacks pushed forward up the pitch to put pressure on the opponent at any time during the game. This is best shown by the graphic below, where the width of Hütter's team is evident.

Ultimately, this makes it difficult for their rivals to progress the ball and led to an entertaining style of play with more high-scoring opportunities.

Under Glasner, Frankfurt play with a back four that hopes to stabilize the team with a mid-high (on the pitch) press instead of putting pressure on the opponent early on.

Herein lies Frankfurt's biggest difference to last season. Now, the team are sitting deeper, blocking passes and covering the center of the pitch with players closer together, as is shown below by the contrasting grey area below.

Glasner's attempt to stabilize the defense has come at the expense of their attack. Frankfurt currently have the third-lowest expected goals (10.13) in the Bundesliga and have only scored nine. The loss of Andre Silva to RB Leipzig has furthered Frankfurt's attacking inefficiency and is one of the main reasons they have only won one game so far this season.

Wolfsburg's woes

Wolfsburg head coach Mark van Bommel was sacked earlier this week, and it's easy to see why. 

Under Glasner, Wolfsburg had a more cautious and compact approach with the focus on solid defensive work and quick counter-attacks instead of playing out from back line.

When van Bommel was in charge, Wolfsburg changed to a possession-based style of play requiring more activity with the ball e.g., finding open spaces to receive passes and making runs behind the defense.

This is not as simple as it sounds. It demands a complete physical and mental restructure and a convincing, strong-minded coach to follow that through.

Furthermore, you need some wins along the way. Having not won a game since September 11, and with Wolfsburg not adapting well to their new style of play, it is clear why van Bommel was given early marching orders.

His replacement is former Werder Bremen boss Florian Kohfeldt, who is, surprisingly, also more possession-based. However, unlike van Bommel, Kohfeldt is more adaptable and can provide workarounds for the team to progress.

He also has more of a track record with the right players.

The Red Bull way

After Julian Nagelsmann left for Bayern Munich, inevitably RB Salzburg's Jesse Marsch succeeded him.

When in charge, Nagelsmann changed some key characteristics within the Red Bull philosophy, adding important solutions in possession as well as changing players' defensive behavior.

Instead of them being man-to-man orientated (which is not the same as strict man-marking, but more flexible with the formation), he changed them to be more zonal, which meant a move towards a more assertive style.

Marsch's approach stopped the focus on solutions with the ball and reverted back to counter-attacking and intensity, the old Red Bull way and the way he coached at Salzburg.

This is risky because the tactic is based on throwing their players into fast transitions to attack, which makes them more unbalanced defensively.

This is also hindering their play while in possession as their structure is not like that under Nagelsmann. This also makes it harder for them to score against teams that sit deep and counter-attack, as was the case in their 1-0 loss against Mainz and their 1-1 draw against Cologne.

Support for coaching change

All three teams face the same problem, namely that each of the new coaches has radically changed a key element of the team's success from the previous season.

That isn't always the fault of the coach, but it raises the question: why were they appointed in the first place? If clubs want to go in a new direction, then patience and support for a coach are key. 

Of all three, RB Leipzig are the best placed to adjust. Marsch has the support of the club, the style of play matches the club's philosophy and their players are good enough to handle the change.