Can Fischer Weather the Storm?

A day after Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer accepted the blame for the visa scandal, the Rheinische Post rubbed salt into the wound by revealing the top German diplomat had been aware of the issue for longer than previously believed -- quoting a ministerial memo from March 19, 2003.

"Mass use of tourist visas has led to a considerable rise in application numbers in the Commonwealth of Independent States and has been exploited for several months by traffickers," the memo said.

The paper pointed out that Fischer himself has said he only became aware of the problem in 2004.

Opposition seizes its opportunity

Edmund Stoiber, leader of the opposition Christian Socialist Union (CSU), said Tuesday that once Fischer has appeared before the parliamentary commission investigating the allegations against the Foreign Ministry, it would be time to decide whether his political accountability would have personal consequences.

In an interview with daily Die Welt, Stoiber said that if so, Fischer "would have to leave office," adding that "the public has a right to know exactly what role the minister responsible played in the arrival of organized criminals from eastern Europe."

Fall-out for the coalition

The accusations revolve around the foreign ministry's controversial relaxation of restrictions on travel from March 2000 until last year, overseen by Fischer's deputy, Ludger Volmer (photo). Critics say the new rules played into the hands of human traffickers and potential terrorists.

Whether or not the allegations of abuse prove true, the extensive media coverage threatens to erase the recent gains made in the polls by the governing Social Democrat-Greens coalition, just days ahead of significant local elections in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein -- where opinion polls give the government a narrow lead -- and three months before a crucial vote in the important industrial state of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Fischer under fire

Fischer, the figurehead of the Green party and a key ally of Chancellor Schröder, is consistently rated Germany's most popular politician. The opposition has always been quick to pounce on ways of undermining him -- after all, slinging mud at the reputation of the coalition's charismatic foreign minister is an easy way of damaging the government.

Fischer is standing his ground in the face of the oppositions' allegations. Although he might have accepted responsibility, he's also suggested the issue has been exaggerated. "It's not as if criminal people-trafficking began under the Red-Green coaltion. It's not as if forced prostitution began with Red-Green," he said Monday referring to the Greens' coalition with Schröder's SPD. "It's not as if there were not considerable pressure from the previous government," he pointed out.

The Greens come of age

The affair has already led to the resignation of Ludger Volmer, and as Fischer now struggles to retain his own credibility, the clouds of suspicion are also drifting towards Interior Minister Otto Schily (photo), another old-school Green- turned-SPD.

Jörg Schönbohm, CSU interior minister of the eastern German state of Brandenburg, accused Schily of failing to oppose what has been dubbed the "Volmer Decree," the relaxing of visa restrictions that have led to the current scandal.

A big scandal for a grown-up party?

Many in Germany will be noting that the affair has resulted in the first black mark on the Greens' hitherto unblemished report card. While other parties have seen their integrity chipped away by scandals and mismanagement, the Greens have managed to maintain a relatively squeaky-clean reputation since entering government in 1998.

"Fischer will remain in office," said Eckart von Klaeden from the Visa Enquiry Committee, "because he is simply too important for this government."

But is his image permanently tarnished?