Mozambique protests: Can SADC resolve the political impasse?

Zimbabwe, the current chair of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), said the 16-member regional bloc will meet in Harare for an extraordinary summit between November 16 and 20. 

The post-election violence unfolding in Mozambique, where the ruling party has been accused of rigging a presidential election to extend its 49 years in power, will be top of the summit's agenda.

According to Human Rights Watch, at least 30 people have been killed in the nearly three weeks of protests that have followed the vote on October 9.

"Initially, [the SADC summit] was put together to address the issues relating to the development in the Democratic Republic of Congo," said Piers Pigou, a political analyst on southern Africa at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria. 

"However, because of the situation unfolding since the election last month in Mozambique, SADC is expected to address that situation or at least to hear from the Mozambican President [Filipe Nyusi] what is going on and what they are doing about it," Pigou told DW.

Opposition continues the fight

This week, Mozambique's opposition leader Venancio Mondlane called for new demonstrations over the disputed election results despite a fierce police crackdown and a military deployment to quell the protests. "We are going to paralyze all activities," Mondlane said on social media.

Mondlane, who came second to the ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo) candidate Daniel Chapo, has bitterly contested the election outcome, citing widespread voter fraud.

"SADC has not been up to its task," Linda Masarira, a Zimbabwean opposition political leader who ran for the presidency in the 2023 election, told DW. "SADC has always been lukewarm when it comes to electoral conflict and it really raises eyebrows on SADC's commitment to deal with electoral issues."

Did SADC's electoral observation mission get it wrong?

Mozambique's opposition has criticized SADC's electoral observation mission (SEOM) after it praised the conduct of the electoral process.

International observers, including those from the European Union, concluded that massive irregularities marred the election.

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa —  who will chair the SADC summit — became one of the first heads of state to congratulate Chapo on his election victory. The opposition quickly rebuked the Zimbabwean leader for doing so even before the electoral body (CNE) announced the final results. To further complicate matters, the country's Constitutional Council is yet to validate the results pending legal challenges by the opposition parties. 

So, how unified is SADC in its bid to end the political crisis in Mozambique?

"There's that kind of assumption floating around that leadership in Angola, Tanzania, South Africa and Zimbabwe having already congratulated Frelimo and its presidential candidate, whereas others have sat on their hands, so to say, to wait for the finality of the process," Pigou said, adding that those premature calls do not necessarily reflect any serious divisions within SADC.

Impact on the region

Pigou said SADC would strive to find a common position among member states. "There is an opportunity for some critical voices to be heard and it remains to be seen whether the opposition in Mozambique is able to have their voices heard by relevant actors in this SADC extraordinary summit." 

South Africa, the largest economy in SADC, has on several occasions closed its border with Mozambique in a sign of how wary President Cyril Ramaphosa's government of national unity is of the political upheaval in the neighboring Portuguese-speaking nation. 

According to South Africa's freight and rail association, the border closure was costing the South African economy at least 10 million rand ($550,000, €521,000) each day. 

The turmoil in Mozambique could also significantly impact neighboring landlocked nations, such as Zambia, Malawi, Congo and Zimbabwe, which heavily depend on Mozambique's ports for their imports and exports.

For Zimbabwean politician Linda Masarira, SADC must do all it takes to end the political uncertainty in Mozambique, which threatens the entire region. "We need peace in Mozambique. We need stability in Mozambique as soon as yesterday," she said.

Edited by: Keith Walker