Center-right projected to be biggest group in EU Parliament

The center-right will remain the largest group in the next European Parliament despite shedding seats, while two euroskeptic groups could see their combined support climb, according to an EU-wide survey conducted ahead of the May 23-26 vote.

Conservative and left-leaning parties have been bracing for a right-wing surge in the European polls following a string of national elections in recent years that have seen euroskeptic parties boost their presence in member state parliaments.

Read more: Euroskeptic, anti-immigrant parties team up for EU election 

The poll in detail

Commissioned by the European Parliament, the poll updates a previous one from March which did not include British voters due to Brexit. It assumes the European Parliament will have 751-seats, instead of 705-seats before a Brexit deadline was extended to October 31. 

• The center-right European People's Party (EPP), which includes German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives, would get 24 percent, down five points compared to the 2014 election.  
• The center-left Socialist & Democrats (S&D) would remain the second largest bloc in the European Parliament at 19.8 percent, a drop of 5 percent.
• The euroskeptic Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD), which currently includes the UK Independence Party, would get 6 percent, up half a point.
• The euroskeptic Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF), which includes Italy's far-right League and France's National Rally, would increase its support by 3.3 percent to 8.3 percent. 

• The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR, which includes Poland’s ruling PiS led by euroskeptic Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is projected to get 8.8 percent, down 1.3 points.

• The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe group (ALDE) is on course to secure 10.1% of the vote, up 1.1 percent.

• The European United Left/Nordic Green Left is projected to win 6.1 percent, down 0.8 percent.
• The Greens-EFA would get 7.6 percent, up 0.7 percent.
• Other parties not in a group were projected to receive 8.3 percent.

How is Germany expected to vote?

Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats are expected to win 31 percent of the vote in Germany, making it the largest party in the European Parliament with a projected 30 seats. The Greens soaring support over the past year is expected to continue into the European polls, with the environmentalists on pace to get 18 percent. They are followed by the Social Democrats (17.3 percent), far-right Alternative for Deutschland (10.8 percent), liberal Free Democrats (7.3 percent), Left Party (6.8 percent) and smaller parties polling at low single digits.

Read more: Germany's conservatives present vision for Europe 

Implication for EU Commission President

The poll confirms previous forecasts showing losses for the EPP and Social Democrats, which tend to cooperate in a sort of coalition in the European Parliament. Under the latest projections, the two groups would have to reach out to a third party to elect the next EU Commission President. German Manfred Weber of the EPP is currently a frontrunner for EU executive post.   

Poll data

The projections are based on national polling institutes in EU member states compiled by Kantar Public. It includes national polls published up to April 15.

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