'Historic' deal no certainty for peace in Chad

After more than five months of talks, 42 rebel groups signed an agreement with Chad's military government in the Qatari capital Doha on Monday. The ceremony was attended by the leader of the junta, Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, who promised not to relent in his efforts to obtain peace.

"I am firmly committed to implementing the conclusions of this agreement to repair the cracks of the past and offer a future of hope to the children of this country," he said.

Under the deal, the Transitional Military Council and hundreds of opposition representatives will launch a national peace dialogue in the capital of Chad, N'Djamena, on August 20. Rebel representatives will be granted safe passage and armed protection.

In an exclusive interview on Tuesday with DW, interim Foreign Minister Cherif Mahamat Zene spoke of a "historic" agreement. He added that its success depended on the agreed-upon implementation of a program to disarm the rebels. "For this to work, we will need significant financial help from the international community," he said.

Dampened hopes

The United Nations, the African Union, and the European Union have all urged the junta and the opposition to seize the opportunity presented by the agreement to stabilize the country.

Chad is considered key to international efforts to stamp out Islamic extremists in the Sahel region. It boasts one of the most battle-hardened military outfits in the region, which is part of the G5 Sahel Joint Force, fighting Jihadist extremist groups such as Boko Haram, and the so-called Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).  

But several rebel groups, including the largest, Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), have refused to sign the deal. Their absence has dented hopes for a quick peace deal and raised fears of a return to violence.

FACT is believed to be behind the death in combat in April 2021 of formerChadian President Idriss Deby, the father of the current president. The leader of FACT, Mahamat Ali Mahadi, told DW that the junta-led government had not met the group's demands for increased safety guarantees and for the release of over 300 fighters from government prisons.

'More than 95% of demands met'

"In our view, the agreement is an empty shell," Mahadi said, accusing the junta of a "clear desire to sideline FACT. "There was nothing sincere about it [the agreement]." 

Foreign Minister Zene rejected the accusations, stressing that the interim executive had met more than 95% of the demands made by the politico-military groups and by politicians in the country.

He said that FACT was acting in bad faith. "I think our suspicions were confirmed that some came [to Doha] only to have a stage for their demands and to prove that they could disrupt and threaten proceedings."

Though rich in oil, Chad is one of the world's poorest countries. According to the African Development Bank, the poverty rate, which stood at 42% in 2018, was probably aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chad's challenges

The country also faces major threats from climate change, which the World Bank says has led to accelerated desertification and the shrinking of Lake Chad.

Futhermore, Chad has endured repeated violence and unrest since independence from France in 1960. Frustration accumulated in 30 years of rule by the late Idriss Deby led to rebel uprisings in the Sahel nation, which borders Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Libya, Niger, Nigeria, and Sudan. Unrest in those neighboring countries has also seen Chadian rebel forces seeking refuge across the border.

Saleh Kebzabo, a former opposition leader in charge of organizing the national reconciliation forum, appealed to the non-signatories to show patriotism.

"I ask them to think a little about the youth, the country's economic, cultural and social development. I ask them to think about the delay we are trying to make up for through a dialogue that will lead us to good elections," he told DW.

Junta leader Deby had promised a national dialogue and elections within 18 months after seizing power, a period that is rapidly winding down. He has also refused to preclude himself from running for the presidency, as demanded by the rebels. But the military junta insists that this can only be decided in national dialogue talks.

Fears of renewed violence

Political analyst Evariste Ngarlem Tolde said he was disappointed by the deal. "It is a meaningless agreement because the politico-military men on the ground have not signed it. There is no guarantee that hostilities will not resume in the days or months to come," he told DW.

Foreign Minister Zene said it would not be wise for non-signatory groups to attempt to "disrupt a dialogue desired by all Chadians," adding that the executive would not hesitate to take all measures necessary to keep this from happening.

Minister Zene said that the door would remain open to anyone who wanted to join the national reconciliation dialogue — recalling that Chad has had more than its share of fratricidal conflicts. "Peace is priceless. War never solved anything."  

Blaise Dariustone and Frejus Quenum contributed to this article.

Edited by: Chrispin Mwashagha Mwakideu