COP29: What is holding back negotiations so far?

There is no time left to lose for decisive climate action as rising temperatures caused by burning fossil fuels leave the world facing escalating storms, floods, droughts and wildfires.

Yet frustrations are rising that one week into COP29, negotiations have so far delivered little progress in tackling the climate crisis and that talks around climate finance, a key priority of the summit, have reached a stalemate. 

"The first week of the conference did not achieve what was necessary to now be optimistic about the second week," said Jan Kowalzig, an expert on climate change and policy at Oxfam, an international NGO focusing on poverty and injustice. "Both key themes of COP29 — greater ambition on climate protection and solid support for low-income countries — are marked by opposing positions and blockages."

Yesterday UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged world leaders gathered in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro for the G20 this week to help rescue stalled talks.

"A successful outcome at COP29 is still within reach, but it will require leadership and compromise, namely from the G20 countries," stated Guterres at a press conference. He emphasized these countries account for 80% of global emissions and should "lead by example." 

What is holding progress back? 

This year's UN climate summit, held in the Azerbaijani capital Baku, arguably didn't get off to a smooth start. 

The absence of leaders from countries including Germany, France and the US drew attention, as did Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev when he used the annual gathering on climate action as a platform to describe oil and gas — key drivers of the climate crisis — as a "gift of God."

Meanwhile, US President-elect Donald Trump has made clear his plans to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement — for a second time — when he re-enters the White House, and Argentina pulled out of the climate talksin a move that civil society organizations say could jeopardize the country's chance of receiving money for climate action. 

One of the key sticking points is developing a climate finance target — known as the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) — which would provide financial assistance to developing countries to tackle emissions and transition away from fossil fuels. 

It is estimated that by the end of the decade developing countries, excluding China, will need $1 trillion a year to help them respond to the climate crisis, according to a study from leading economists published last week.

Yet countries are still negotiating the final figure of the climate goal, as well as the type of financing and who should pay.

Western nations would like China and wealthy Gulf states to contribute to the fund and say the private sector will also need to be involved in raising investments. 

"As Jerry McGuire says 'show me the money.' The amount of climate finance, along with who pays and who receives it, are central to unlocking negotiations and securing a strong outcome at COP29," said Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, global climate and energy lead at environmental organization WWF.

"A new climate finance agreement, that meets the needs of developing countries, is crucial in enabling them to set ambitious mitigation targets and pathways to achieving them. It must also ensure they can adapt and respond to the consequences of rising temperatures. There is no time to delay, as countries must submit their new national climate plans by COP30 in November next year," added Pulgar-Vidal.

What might happen in the coming days? 

This week, government ministers are arriving in Baku to take part in negotiations, with just a few days left to reach a final agreement. 

"The midpoint of climate negotiations is always a challenging time. Not enough progress has been made thus far at COP29, and the clock is ticking for nations to reach consensus on a range of crunch issues," said Rachel Cleetus, policy director on the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a US-based non profit science advocacy organization. "This is the time for major emitting nations, especially richer countries, to show leadership and negotiate in good faith to maintain trust and credibility."

Speaking at a briefing on Monday, Wopke Bastiaan Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate Action, noted that while the lack of progress is often lamented at this stage in COP negotiations, there was still solid ground for optimism. "Despite the difficult geopolitical situation, we can and should have a good result."

Hoekstra called on the COP presidency to start bringing states together to focus on concrete efforts as soon as possible this week.

COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev admitted he was concerned at the pace of the negotiations and emphasized that the G20 leadership, which accounts for 85% of global GDP and 80% of emissions, is essential to making progress in Baku on all pillars of the Paris Agreement, from finance to mitigation and adaptation. 

"We cannot succeed without them, and the world is waiting to hear from them. We urge them to use the G20 meeting to send a positive signal of their commitment to addressing the climate crisis. We want them to provide clear mandates to deliver at COP29. This is the chance to show their leadership," said Babayev.  

Edited by: Tamsin Walker

Correction: A previous version of this article incorrectly identified the host city of the G20 summit, Rio de Janeiro, as the capital of Brazil.