Critics say Israel's Netanyahu has no postwar strategy

The war between Israel and Hamas and its allies has entered its second year, and there's no end in sight. And when it comes to concrete plans of how to conclude the war and what should happen after, the Israeli government's objectives have been rather vague.

The phrase that's being used by the Israeli government and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is that they want to achieve "total victory." What this means in practice, though, is up for interpretation and many believe the Israeli government has itself not fully spelled out a definition.

From status quo to war

For years, Netanyahu and his various governments were known for keeping the status quo in the ongoing conflict with the Palestinians. 

This approach, called in Hebrew "Nihul HaSikhsukh," or "conflict management," stood for maintaining the current situation at all costs. Between the demands of his right-wing voters and the need to find a solution for the situation in the occupied West Bank and in Gaza, Netanyahu again and again delayed making a decision.

According to Israeli media reports, Netanyahu said in 2019 that part of his strategy was keeping the division between the Palestinian factions in the West Bank and Gaza by allowing Qatar's money transfers to Hamas.

But on October 7, 2023, many Israelis felt this strategy had become a terrible failure.

The terrorist attacks carried out by several Islamist groups and led by Hamas— labeled a terrorist organization by the US, EU, Canada and others — cost the lives of some 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and resulted in some 250 people being kidnapped and taken to Gaza. Of those hostages, 101 are still being held in the enclave a year later.

After suffering the worst terrorist attack in Israel's history, and the deadliest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, the Israeli government had to do something it had avoided in previous escalations with Hamas: officially announce an all-out war.

"Not an operation, not a round — a war," as Netanyahu said after learning about the October 7 attacks.

US calls for 'political strategy' to deal with Hamas

But a year into the war with Hamas, and several weeks after Israel first launched an incursion into southern Lebanon, it seems Netanyahu is slowly returning to his old habits — as Israel's security authorities call for more decisiveness in the political decision-making process.

On the one hand, the Israeli military has said Hamas' military wing has been "defeated in military terms" and that it is now operating solely as a guerrilla group. On the other, there's been very little news about the return of the remaining 101 hostages in the hands of the militant groups in Gaza, and attacks within Israel continue on a regular basis. The recent escalation in Lebanon has cost soldiers' lives, and forced tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate. Rocket attacks are also still a problem, mostly from Lebanon.

But there is still no news from the Israeli government as to its long-term plan regarding the war and its outcome.

The United States, Israel's closest ally, has also called on Netanyahu to provide clarity on the future. In May, after a trip to Israel to meet with Netanyahu, Israeli President Isaac Herzog and other government officials, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said he had "reaffirmed the need for Israel to connect its military operations to a political strategy that can ensure the lasting defeat of Hamas, the release of all the hostages, and a better future for Gaza."

Majority of Israeli public believes gov't lacks clear objectives

This also applies to Israel's recent clashes with Islamist group Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

The US has urged Israel to translate its intelligence and military success — which included assassinating Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, long a target, and much of the organization's top-level command — into political achievements.

An official familiar with the Israeli government's thinking told US newspaper The Washington Post that Israel has a strategy of how it would hit Hezbollah. "But there is not necessarily a strategy of what comes next, how to get out of it."

Part of the problem, the official said, is the conflict within the Israeli government itself. While the far right wants to see Israel strike forcefully against Hezbollah ally Iran, which last week launched 200 missiles on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Nasrallah and other leaders, the more moderate parts of Netanyahu's government think working together with the US is the right way to go.

Much of the Israeli public also thinks its government is not doing enough in terms of planning for an endgame for the war.

According to a recent poll by The Jewish People Policy Institute, 57% see the lack of clear objectives as the reason the war has gone on for as long as it has.

Among other key findings, 76% of Israelis think the war has dragged on due to the government not making the right decisions quickly enough.

Many Israelis also feel political survival is fueling the ongoing war, with 55% believing the war has been prolonged due to the coalition government's political considerations.

While opinion polls suggest Netanyahu's Likud party has regained support in recent weeks, the country's right-wing coalition is still lagging behind opposition parties.

As for the Netanyahu's "total victory," the Israeli Parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee was scheduled to meet on October 6 to officially define the terms "victory" and "defeat." But the meeting ended up being canceled.

Potential for two-state solution rejected

The Israeli government's lack of strategy also poses a problem for what should happen after the war.

The government's far-right politicians have pushed for an expansion of West Bank settlements, considered illegal by most of the international community — with some even pushing for an Israeli resettlement of the Gaza Strip. But voices from within the Arab and Muslim world calling for normalizing ties with Israel in return for allowing the establishment of a Palestinian state have become ever louder, calls which up until recently only existed behind closed doors or in confidential channels.

The most senior Arab politician to speak about the issue has been Ayman Safadi, the foreign minister of Jordan. At a press conference following Netanyahu's speech at the UN General Assembly in September, Safadi said the Arab and Muslim world was willing to guarantee Israel's security should it agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state according to the pre-1967 borders.

"We're here — members of the Muslim-Arab committee, mandated by 57 Arab and Muslim countries — and I can tell you very unequivocally, all of us are willing to guarantee the security of Israel in the context of Israel ending the occupation and allowing for the emergence of a Palestinian state," he said.

According to Safadi, Israel has rejected a two-state solution. The Israeli government doesn't have any official stance on a two-state solution, but several of its members have gone on record staunchly rejecting any prospect of the Palestinians having a state of their own.

"Can you ask Israeli officials what is their endgame, other than just wars and wars and wars?" asked Safadi.

Edited by: Andreas Illmer