How dangerous is the Islamist victory in Jordan's elections?

Before last week's elections, Jordan's most popular political party, the Islamic Action Front, regularly organized protests against Israel's military campaign in Gaza and recent incursions into the occupied West Bank.

During these, party supporters called out slogans like "we are all Hamas" and "Yahya Sinwar [who heads Hamas] is our leader." Supporters of the Islamic Action Front, or IAF, also often demanded that Jordan scupper its long-running peace treaty with neighboring Israel, signed in 1994.

Perhaps, given the anger in Jordan about the civilian impact of Israel's military campaign against the Hamas militant group in Gaza and the fact that around half of Jordan's population has Palestinian roots, it should not have come as a surprise that the IAF did particularly well in Jordan's parliamentary elections last week.

The IAF, a political party representing the interests of the Muslim Brotherhood group in the country, became the largest in the Jordanian parliament, winning 31 out of the 138 seats. The Muslim Brotherhood, which exists throughout the Middle East, is Jordan's oldest and largest Islamist organization.

The election result was the Islamists' best in 35 years. Observers say the IAF's focus on the Gaza conflict was part of the reason for the success. But the party also managed to attract votes from other groups beyond its conservative Muslim base.

This is due partially to what Ahmad Sharawi, a research analyst at the conservative US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, describes as a "climate of disillusionment."

Jordan is experiencing economic stagnation and higher unemployment while, at the same time, important sectors like tourism are badly impacted by the conflict next door in Israel. Voters don't believe their political system can change much of that, as evidenced by a low turnout of 32% last week.

"The Islamists have won a reputation as the only political force able and willing to challenge the status quo and demand accountability from the government," Sharawi wrote in a policy brief last week.

How much change can the IAF really bring?

In brief: Not a lot. Jordan is a constitutional monarchy and although there are elections, it is the country's King Abdullah II who holds almost all political power.

Parliament has limited powers and the king chooses the country's prime minister, senate and ministers.

There has been some movement towards political reform though, and this is part of the reason why the IAF was able to do so well last week. From 2022, every Jordanian election is supposed to allocate an increasing number of seats for political parties, rather than having voters focus on tribal or religious leaders, or ethnic representation. 

In this election, 41 seats — or 30% — of the seats in parliament were allocated to political parties. In 2028, that rises to 50% and then in 2032, to 65% of seats. Should reforms go ahead, the IAF could come to dominate parliament.

At the moment though, there's not much they can do other than potentially cause trouble in parliament by using political tools such as their right to summon ministers for questioning, Jordanian researcher Hassan Abu Haniya, an expert on local Islamist parties, told DW.

"We will certainly witness calls for a vote of no confidence and more questioning and calls for clarification," Abu Haniya suggested.

"The IAF might seek to frustrate government efforts to pass some laws, for instance," says Neil Quilliam, a research fellow and Middle East expert at British think tank, Chatham House. "But it would need to follow parliamentary protocol and, by doing so, show that it is a part of the formal government structure."

And the IAF would be outnumbered if conservative political parties act as one block, added Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 

Could the IAF derail Jordan's democratic reforms?

"Conservatives within the Jordanian establishment will see the results as a validation of their concerns about political reform," al-Omari confirmed. But the king is the driving force behind reforms and appears committed to them, he told DW.

"In the short term, Jordan will carry on with reforms," al-Omari predicts. "In the longer term, it will depend whether the IAF decides to cooperate with the government or whether it adopts a confrontational approach."

For example, he says, parliament must consent to the king's picks for a new cabinet. If they issue a vote of no confidence, they can force a whole new selection process.

"For now though, there is no immediate risk to the political order in Jordan," al-Omari said. "This represents a political challenge — but not yet a crisis."

Bigger worries than Islamists

In some ways, it is possible that the Jordanian king may even have welcomed the IAF's victory.

Having a moderate religious movement like the IAF in government offers a way for Jordanian society to "let off steam" as locals are increasingly angry and upset about the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, Abu Haniya told DW.

"I don't think the king is worried by the election result," Chatham House expert Quilliam agreed. "He is more concerned with Israel's war on Hamas in Gaza, settler activity in the West Bank, and the inflammatory actions and comments from Israeli cabinet ministers. All of these pose a threat to the stability of the region and the wellbeing of Jordan."

Over the years, the Jordanian government's relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood has regularly changed, Quilliam continued. The organization has been banned at some points, then incorporated into the political process at others.

"Given public sensitivities at present — with over 40,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza — the king is most likely content that popular frustration has been channeled through parliament, where it can be managed," Quilliam concluded. "The election result is viewed as necessary, because it not only lets off steam, but also allows the king to warn his international partners that the cost of supporting Israel and not backing his country to the hilt carries wider risks for the region."

Additional reporting by Alaa Gomaa, DW Arabic.