Pakistan: Kashmir on back burner amid domestic woes

Pakistan has long supported Kashmiri separatists in their quest to gain "independence" from India. Islamabad says the help is only diplomatic and moral, but New Delhi claims that its neighboring Islamic country provides military and logistical backing to militants in the region.

India and Pakistan have been at loggerheads over the Himalayan region since they gained independence from British rule in 1947. Both South Asian countries rule parts of Kashmir but claim the region in its entirety. They have also fought several wars over the territory.

In 2019, New Delhi abrogated Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which had allowed the region limited autonomy. India claimed that Kashmir's semi-autonomy had been a "root cause" of anti-India militancy. It also said that its decision would improve the economic and social development of Kashmir, and embarked on a major political makeover of the Muslim-majority region.

Pakistan had a largely muted response to the Indian move. Experts said this could be a result of the political and economic turmoil the country has been grappling with for some years.

Pakistan's economic woes

On September 1, the first death anniversary of Syed Ali Shah Geelani, a pro-Pakistan separatist leader in India-administered Kashmir, passed quietly despite calls for regionwide strikes from separatist groups.

For many people, the relative silence on Geelani's death anniversary shows that Pakistan's influence in Kashmir is declining.

There is a perception among pro-Pakistan sections in the region that Islamabad is no longer in a position to help them. At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been able to assert his political power in India-administered Kashmir.

"There are indications that Pakistan has drifted away from Kashmir. Pakistan's anti-India Kashmir rhetoric is no longer so potent," Parvez Rather, a Srinagar resident, told DW.

While India is progressing economically, Pakistan's financial woes have aggravated in the past few years. Inflation data from July showed Pakistan's Consumer Price Index surged nearly 25% compared to last year, with people struggling to bear the soaring costs of basic essentials like food and energy.

The economic turmoil is putting heavy pressure on Pakistan's new government, which recently secured a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stave off a disastrous default on foreign debt.

It is only natural that Islamabad can no longer afford to spend its energies on the Kashmir conflict.

Islamabad on a backfoot

Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan has been holding massive public rallies since his ouster from power in April. Khan accuses his country's powerful military generals of conspiring with the opposition parties to topple his government, a claim denied by the Pakistani Army. But due to Khan's rhetoric, many of his supporters have openly turned against the military.

"The political chaos is on the rise in Pakistan. This has disillusioned those Kashmiris who see Pakistan as a state that can help them," Ajai Sahni, a counterterrorism expert and executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi, told DW.

"There are still some Pakistan supporters in the region, but their enthusiasm has substantially gone down," he added.

But Pakistan's struggles with its involvement in the Kashmir conflict go back further. Since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the US, Islamabad has found it increasingly difficult to back Kashmiri separatists, said security analysts.

"After 9/11, Pakistan has been under pressure from the international community to fight terrorism, but that in turn has helped the Indian position," Sahni argued.

According to anthropologist Ather Zia, it does not mean that Indian repression and human rights abuses in Kashmir have declined.

"Indian policies have been emboldened by anti-Muslim geopolitics that show the Kashmiris' struggle in a poor light," Zia, a professor at the University of Northern Colorado Greeley, US, told DW.

A blessing in disguise?

Pakistan's backing for Kashmiri separatists has also proven to be a double-edged sword for the locals. Many experts in India and Pakistan are of the view that Islamabad hijacked the indigenous Kashmiri movement and infused militarism in it. Thus, a largely political movement has lost its credibility internationally.

On the international stage, New Delhi has used Pakistan's alleged military backing to discredit Kashmiris' political struggle, a human rights activist in Srinagar, who asked not to be named, told DW.

He lamented that the Kashmiri civil society never questioned Pakistan's role in the region.

Sahni believes that Kashmir needs a political solution now. "The security has improved in the region. Now it is time for a political resolution, but we don't see a willingness among the [PM Modi's] Bharatiya Janata Party's government to achieve it," he said.

Some locals are of the view that Pakistan's relative disassociation from the Kashmir conflict could be a blessing for the political movement there.

"Pakistan has exploited us for 30 years; suddenly it can't abandon us," a university student in Srinagar told DW on condition of anonymity. "They must tell us whether they want to help us or we should deal with New Delhi on our own," she added.

Analyst Ather Zia said that Pakistan and India should stop using Kashmiris as a "bargaining chip," adding that it is time that Kashmiris find their own solutions.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru