Congo's election campaign eclipsed by unresolved conflict

The hurdles to holding free and fair elections in the vast Democratic Republic of the Congo are high. This bureaucratic act would require a long lead time, even under ideal conditions.

But the conditions for the December 20 elections are far from ideal. A land mass of more than 2.3 million square kilometers (905,355 square miles) can only be covered by plane, and the roads are often in poor condition.

Everything takes longer, from registering voters to distributing election documents and ballot boxes. Yet, in an interview with DW, Congo's Independent National Electoral Commission, or CENI, is optimistic ahead of the presidential, parliamentary and municipal polls.

"If God wills it, everything will be peaceful," said Didi Manara Linga, CENI's deputy chair, in a recent interview. "After all, all the presidential candidates are holding their campaigns. So far, we haven't seen any obstacle that would be so big that we couldn't hold the election."

Focus on eastern Congo

Currently, Congo's conflict-torn eastern provinces, especially North Kivu, have the full attention of politicians.

Several presidential candidates have hit the campaign trail in eastern Congo, holding rallies in towns like Goma, Beni and Butembo. It seems the flare in the conflict that has pitted M23 rebels against pro-government local militias and Congolese soldiers has become the sole campaign issue.

Presidential candidate Moise Katumbi, seen as a serious contender, has promised to bring peace to the east in six months.

Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege, also running for the presidency, sees peace in the east as a top priority. "Stop the war," wrote Mukwege on X, formerly Twitter, after his appearances in Beni and Goma. "Lobi te, Lelo — not tomorrow, but today!"

The M23 rebel group, which the UN has said is supported by neighboring Rwanda, de facto controls the territories of Masisi and Rutshuru in North Kivu. As a result, voting won't take place there.

Incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi has justified this exclusion of the approximately 1 million eligible voters in the territories with the need to be able to hold the elections on schedule.

The candidates' focus on North Kivu, M23 and Rwanda is "quite contradictory," political analyst Onesphore Sematumba of the International Crisis Group, a think tank, told DW.

"Two territories are excluded from the electoral process because of the insecurity and presence of the M23," said Sematumba. "But it is precisely these territories that are absent from the vote that are most present in the debate."

Everything else — campaign programs and policies — has been forgotten, he pointed out. Sematumba criticized the fact that although Tshisekedi has been in power for five years, analysis of his presidency is lacking.

No significant reforms from Tshisekedi

During his five years in office, Tshisekedi has failed to end the raging conflict, which involves more than 120 rebel groups, despite numerous attempts to organize external support.

Two international peacekeeping forces are withdrawing from eastern Congo. The 15,000-strong UN stabilization mission in the central African country, known as MONUSCO, has long lost the trust of the local population. It signed a withdrawal agreement at the end of November.

The mandate of the seven-nation East African Community regional force, which deployed troops to the violence-plagued region late last year, expired on December 8 on Tshisekedi's request.

Tshisekedi's five years in office haven't left much in the way of notable achievements. Forced into an awkward power-sharing deal with outgoing President Joseph Kabila, who ruled Congo for 18 years, it took Tshisekedi two years to distance himself from the former leaser and his political camp.

But even in the second half of his term, Tshisekedi hasn't undertaken any significant reforms, probably due to the escalating crisis in the east and the approaching elections.

Securing power with political alliances

Tshisekedi's challenger, Katumbi, has already united several competitors behind him, including former Prime Minister Matata Ponyo.

Two other heavyweights remain: Martin Fayulu, who many believe was the real victor of the contested elections in 2018, and Mukwege. Whether these two could join forces to form a second opposition alliance remains to be seen.

In the 2018 elections, several prominent opposition leaders were banned from running. In contrast, the 2023 list is crowded.

"From the outset, Tshisekedi gambled on dispersing the opposition," said Sematumba. "That's why CENI admitted all candidates. The more candidates, the better."

The question of alliances is also crucial for political newcomer Tshisekedi, the son of seasoned politician and charismatic opposition figure Etienne Tshisekedi, who essentially began his political career when he assumed the presidency in early 2019.

"Tshisekedi doesn't know the country, and the country doesn't know him," said Sematumba. "In his five years in power, I think he's only been to the east once, before the M23 resurgence [in October]."

According to Sematumba, Tshisekedi's party, the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, doesn't have roots in large parts of the country.

That's why the president has forged his own alliance with political heavyweights from different regions: former Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba, who has a strong base in the north, Economy Minister Vital Kamerhe and others from North Kivu and his prime minister, Sama Lukonde, of Katanga province in the southeast.

The election will also have an element of surprise. It's a first-past-the-post ballot, which means there will be no run-off between the top two candidates. As a result, a slight lead could be enough to secure the presidency.

Grace Kabogo contributed to this article. It was originally written in German.