Ecuador votes in the shadow of violence

Agustin Intriago, Fernando Villavicencio, Pedro Briones — three leading politicians murdered in three weeks in Ecuador.

With just days to go before Sunday's earlier-than-anticipated presidential election, the situation in the South American nation is spiraling further out of control. Violence has come to dominate the country's political landscape.

"They are resolving political conflicts with violence, and that is a serious problem," Efren Guerrero, a political analyst from the Pontifical Catholic University of Ecuador, told DW. "Ecuador is heading to the polls tired and scared."

Violence cutting across political dividing lines

The present crisis was foreseeable, according to Wolf Grabendorff, a former representative in Ecuador of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, linked with Germany's center-left Social Democratic Party.

However, what has only now become apparent is "the structural dimension of this crisis, which is revealing the influence of different criminal groups on the state." The murders are a show of power, Grabendorff added.

They reflect the depth of the crisis in the nation, with violence cutting across political dividing lines. Villavicencio was known for his anti-corruption stance and opposition to "Correismo," the doctrine of left-wing former president Rafael Correa, while Briones was affiliated with Correa's party.

The weakened government can no longer handle the situation, according to Grabendorff. "A large part of the population no longer has confidence in the rule of law," he said.

Allegations of corruption leveled against conservative President Guillermo Lasso have caused support for him to wane. Lasso is accused of embezzling money related to oil transportation contracts, while his brother-in-law is also suspected of having ties to the Albanian mafia. Both have denied all accusations.

For academic Guerrero, Lasso has "lost his political capacity to act," so much so that he unceremoniously dissolved parliament in mid-May and called a fresh election — an option under the constitution but one that had never previously been exercised in Ecuador's history. "Democracy is in danger," said Grabendorff.

COVID-19, drug trafficking push Ecuador into crisis

The pandemic pushed Ecuador into a deep economic crisis, and poverty levels are still higher than before COVID-19 hit, according to data from the National Institute for Statistics and Censuses. One in four Ecuadorians is living in poverty.

On top of this comes burgeoning violence. Once considered one of the most stable countries in the region, Ecuador is now one of the bloodiest. Between 2020 and 2022, the murder rate climbed 245%, and it's now higher than that of Mexico. The National Police counted 3,568 violent deaths in the first six months of this year, already higher than the first half of 2022.

Analysts say this development is closely linked to the rampant trade in illicit drugs. Ecuador lies between the two biggest cocaine producers, Colombia and Peru. According to the UN data, Ecuador overtook Colombia as the leading exporter of cocaine this year, although Colombia is still the top producer.

"There is an economic crisis, there is an emotional crisis, there is a security crisis, but there is also a huge mental health crisis," Guerrero summed up. Many more people are leaving the country, and the suicide rate has also risen.

Ecuador, the new Colombia?

The strong influence of gangs on politics and the murder of presidential candidates is reminiscent of dark times in neighboring countries.

"Ecuador is going through what Colombia went through in the '80s, and Mexico went through in the '90s," Otto Sonnenholzner, a presidential candidate and former vice president, wrote in El Espectador, a Colombian daily newspaper.

The comparison is valid, according to Grabendorff, but globalization has also changed the dynamics of drug trafficking in recent years. While Colombia was dominated by national cartels such as the Medellin and Cali cartels, Ecuador is under the influence of international players, including Mexican and even European ones.

Jan Topic, the outsider

So what can Ecuadorians expect from these elections? "Our agenda — everyone's — is security, economy and stability, prosperity," said Guerrero.

However, the recent assassinations have further shaken the population's confidence in the political system. Only one candidate seems to be benefiting from the crisis: Jan Topic.

A millionaire businessman with military training, Topic has positioned himself as an outsider, claiming to belong neither to the political  left, center nor right and promising a "completely apolitical decision-making schema." His proposal to curb violence with a "mano dura" ("iron fist") policy in the style of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele seems to have widespread appeal — the former sniper nicknamed "Rambo" is climbing in the polls.

What will dominate the elections, experts said, is anti-Correismo and frustration.

"People are fed up," said Guerrero. Grabendorff believes "it's definitely going to be a protest election." But the polls are unlikely to bring the stability many are hoping for.

This article was originally written in Spanish.