Ethiopia protests

In Ethiopia, May 28 is known as Victory Day - the day in 1991 when Meles Zenawi's rebel troops triumphantly entered Addis Ababa to take power from military dictator Mengistu. But 20 years after the revolution, the onetime rebel leader continues to cling to power - and now he is worried about facing an uprising of his own.

Beka movement

For months now, opposition groups have been organizing a protest movement against Meles, called "Beka!" - a word that means "Enough!" in Amharic. Many Ethiopians, it seems, have had "enough" of Meles' leadership - they are complaining about the soaring costs of living, rising joblessness among youth, and increasing harassment from the Meles government.

"It is time at last to end 20 years of ongoing suffering under the dictatorial regime," said Demelash Likun, the head of the Ethiopian youth organization in Germany. His group is one of those responsible for organizing the planned Beka protests on May 28.

Demelash says now is a good time to take political action, since there is more focus on African politics now than ever before. "We can't forget that, thanks to the Egyptian and Tunisian people, everyone has seen that it's still possible to aim for democracy in Africa, simply following the will of the people," he said.

Jasmin revolution in Amharish

Many Ethiopians agree with Demelash, including Ethiopians that live in the US and Europe. The Beka campaign and protests began outside of Ethiopia in mid-January, 2011, via social media, right after the Jasmine Revolution pushed Tunesian ex-President Ben Ali out of his country. Since then, the opposition and civic groups, including youth groups in the US and Europe, have been holding demonstrations.

This raises the question of whether the demonstrations have any effect on the local population. According to Lulit Mesfin, the international coordinator of the Beka movement, the answer is "yes."

Lulit Mesfin doesn't want to say too much about the actions that the Beka movement is planning; if the government finds out about it, it would stop them, she said.

"People would be arrested, killed and tortured," Lulit said. Five years ago, she notes, some 200 opposition members were killed by security forces during the parliamentary elections. A majority of the leadership of the largest opposition party was thrown into prison for nearly two years.

Meles regime - business as usual

This time, too, the government reacted with a wave of arrests, most of which affected the Oromo ethnic group. The Oromo are Ethiopia's largest ethnic group and they are unhappy about being politically marginalized. But they only represent the tip of a mass-protest iceberg.

Meles Zenawi has also arrested Oromo members of his own ruling coalition - a fact that shows how nervous he is, observers say. The opposition is also reporting that Internet cafes are being monitored, on the "three agents per cafe" principal. The aim: to put the brakes on any possible Facebook-mobilized campaigns and avert a Tunisia- or Egypt-style revolt.

Ethiopia expert Ulrich Delius said he, too, is aware that the Ethiopian government is taking a harder line. Delius, who works for the German rights group Society for Threatened Peoples (GfbV), says that up to now 370 politicians have been arrested, whereabouts unknown.

"We've also seen constant saber-rattling between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Meles Zenawi threatened to significantly raise defense spending," Delius said. "That leads to increasing tensions in the region - and that is really very worrisome."

Eritrean trump card?

Once again Meles Zenawi is playing the Eritrean trump card. In a move thought to be mostly aimed at diverting attention from his political woes, Zenawi has recently made announcements about Eritreans being found on the border with explosives and weapons. Moreover, Zenawi says, Eritrea is trying to turn Addis Ababa into a second Baghdad, with its frequent bombing attacks.

The plan is to shift the focus of peoples' anger onto Eritrea may just fail this time, despite the fact that there are plenty of enraged citizens in Ethiopia, the second-most populous country in Africa. Because the security forces, whose leadership is mostly recruited from Meles' Tigray ethic group, are on the one hand still clearly behind the political leadership.

On the other hand, Ethiopia's democracy movement, unlike in Egypt or in Libya, cannot count on the full support of the international community, observers say. In the West, Ethiopia's regime is well-liked and appreciated - especially as a bulwark against Islamic terrorists from Somalia. And so far African Union, which has its headquarters in Addis Ababa, has not openly called for more democracy in Ethiopia; Libya was a different question altogether.

Autor: Mohammed Negash (jen)
Editor: Rob Mudge