EU leaders discuss Europe's future amid Trump's election win

No matter who occupies the White House, Europe must become more independent and resilient. This is what Charles Michel, President of the European Council, cautioned in a July interview with DW during the fourth European Political Community (EPC) summit in the UK. Now, on the heels of the US presidential election, the EPC and its 47 member states are gathering in Budapest.

The main questions for the summit are: How will Europe deal with the electoral victory of nationalist conservative Donald Trump? And how will a Republican administration affect support for Ukraine, NATO security guarantees, and efforts to ward off Russia's threat in Europe?

In his invitation letter to the Hungarian EPC summit, Michel wrote that the world's crises — he lists Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, violence in the Middle East, conflict and instability in Africa, a weakened global economy and irregular migration — are "putting peace, stability and prosperity at risk in our region."

Hungary ruffles diplomatic feathers

The co-host of this summit is right-wing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and his country currently also holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union. So far, he has been the only staunch supporter of Donald Trump among the ranks of heads of state and government. Already, he's called the return of the erratic former president to power a "victory for the world."

Just this summer, Orban had exasperated his colleagues when he set out on a self-described "peace mission" which included Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and Mar-a-Lago, Trump's Floridian residence. Afterward, he claimed Trump would be able to end Russia's war in Ukraine in just days.

He added that he, Orban, was the only national leader in Europe who wanted peace.

In response, leaders in the European Union (EU) have organized somewhat of a slowdown strike, with only a handful of ministers and no EU commissioners attending an informal ministerial meeting the EU president Hungary is also hosting in Budapest.

Was Donald Trump invited?

Apparently, Orban has lined up further diplomatic provocations, with reports suggesting he has made arrangements for president-elect Trump to join EU leaders via a video link. EU diplomats had already strongly rejected this proposal during preparations for the summit.

Orban responded to this by threatening to cancel a planned video conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. It's unclear whether the latter will now travel to the summit in person instead.

Zelenskyy hopes to convince members of the EPC and the EU to send his country more aid should the US withdraw its financial and military support for Ukraine in January, when Trump is expected to assume office. On the campaign trail, Trump had already announced such intentions.

EU bracing for US tariffs

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and many other European leaders have congratulated Trump and announced they wish to see their partnerships with the US continued.

Aside from such diplomatic formalities, the EU has long been preparing economic policies to respond to a second Trump presidency. In closed-door working groups, the European Commission and member states have assembled countermeasures should the returning president impose tariffs on goods imported from the EU like he has been threatening to.

The US is one of the most important destinations for German exports. The Munich-based Leibniz Institute for Economic Research estimates that Trump's tariffs could cost Germany's economy €33 billion ($35.4 billion).

Can the EU make economic ground?

Straight after the EPC summit on Thursday, the 27 EU heads of state and government will gather for an informal meeting on Friday to discuss how to make Europe's economy more competitive toward China and the US.

In September, Italian economist and former head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi outlined a roadmap on "The future of European competitiveness," which calls for hundreds of billions of euros worth of investment. There is strong disagreement within the bloc over where this money should be coming from, but a fresh round of collective debt appears out of the question.

Of particular concern is Germany's slumped economy, which is just a hair's breadth from a recession and could drag the rest of Europe into an economic crisis. Berlin's fractious coalition, along with French President Emmanuel Macron's unpopularity at home, have made German-French initiatives and leadership within the EU far less convincing. Right-wing leaders like Orban or Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could be next in line to fill the gap Germany and France leave behind.

What is the EPC?

The European Political Community was founded in 2022 following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It brings together nearly all European nations, including Turkey as well as Caucasian and Western Balkan nations. Russia and its close ally Belarus were explicitly disinvited.

The fact that this forum is now meeting in Hungary of all countries is bound to make talks all the more difficult. The political views and diplomatic methods of Hungary's Prime Minister are noticeably out of line with the EU, which has repeatedly accused Orban's government of undermining the rule of law. The bloc is currently withholding funds earmarked for Hungary over the country's breach of EU treaties and apparent disregard for EU court rulings.

This article was translated from German.