'Fig-leaf' for Damascus

The Arab League mission in Syria has been heavily criticized for failing to stop, or even clearly condemn, the ongoing violence which UN estimates suggest has claimed more than 5,000 lives since anti-regime protests began in March. Ruprecht Polenz, a foreign policy expert for Germany's Christian Democrats, told Deutsche Welle that the mission has failed to achieve any of its goals.

DW: Mr. Polenz, up until now nobody has been able to stop the bloodshed in Syria, including the Arab League observer mission. Has the mission failed in your opinion?

Ruprecht Polenz: The Arab League is facing a dilemma: On the one hand Arab governments are coming under more and more pressure from their people to do something to stop the bloodshed and the brutality of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad. On the other hand, the observer mission gives the impression that it is either looking the other way from atrocities in Syria or that it is being duped. Regardless, neither theory is to its credit.

The Arab League is now looking to extend their mission in Syria. Won't this mean that valuable time will be lost?

It depends on whether the mission is really designed in such a way that they are doing something effective and can report back. It is surely up to human rights experts from the United Nations to reinforce their efforts. It would also be wise if the Arab League put pressure on Syria to finally allow foreign journalists into the country. It is well known that foreigners haven't been able to report from Syria for some time.

And the dilemma which the Arab League is now facing is that an observer mission such as this one needs the approval of President Assad. Either the mission is carried out by the Arab League themselves so that one can really consider it an independent observer mission, or they leave it. After all, an observer mission which has the approval of Assad will be misled and is just a "fig leaf," or a mask, for the Syrian regime.

Any support the UN chooses to offer the Arab League contingent would also first require the agreement of Assad. Can the UN achieve any more than the Arab League if they can be brought on board with the mission?

Assad is clearly going to come up against international condemnation if he doesn't allow UN human rights experts into the country. After everything that he has done and his disregard for the Syrian people, however, I believe that he won't hesitate to defy international criticism in this case either. I am very skeptical about whether following this path will put an end to the bloodshed.

From the very beginning the observer mission has come under harsh criticism. The Syrian opposition has even called for it to be temporarily discontinued. Can you understand why this might be? Would an earlier discontinuation of the mission have been advisable?

Yes, I can understand why. It is worse when an observer mission tells the world "Everything isn't that bad in Syria and the country is on a good path," when the situation is actually deteriorating rapidly, than if there wasn't an observer mission in the country at all. In that respect I completely understand the reaction of the Syrian opposition.

The Arab League is now divided by its composition of post-revolutionary states, reform-minded countries and conservative regimes. Is it possible for an alliance of such different nations to speak with one voice?

You are right. Given the very different interests and outlooks of individual Arab countries it is difficult to take effective action. One thing is certain, however, the Arab people expect something to be done in Syria to stop their fellow countrymen from being oppressed, harassed and murdered. Arab governments must use this pressure to confront the Arab League.

Until now, no amount of international pressure could stop President Assad. What needs to be done in order for this to change?

When it comes to Syria's international relations, I believe the most influential countries are its immediate neighbors, including Turkey. Turkey has made it clear how strongly it opposes what is currently happening in Syria. Whether sanctions and, crucially, more international pressure can make a difference, remains to be seen. While the UN could make progress, unfortunately the UN Security Council is being blocked from taking decisive action by Russia and China.

The UN estimates that more than 5,000 people have been killed in Syria since the outbreak of the protests. Hasn't Assad now far exceeded the point of no return? How can peace be restored while Assad remains president in Syria?

I don't see how that would be possible either. The question is, how can an alternative government be found which can rely on popular support, how can an election be organized, as well as a new constitution, and how can all the forces in Syria participate in bringing about these changes? Either way I believe that things can not continue with Assad still in power.

Interview: Thomas Latschan / ccp
Editor: Andrew Bowen