Reassessing Terror

What does it mean that a group of doctors -- recent immigrants to Europe from different nations who seem to have had little prior contact with established terror networks -- came together to plot a bombing? And was the failure of their bombs to detonate purely a blessing, or a signal that bombings in Europe might become more frequent, now that it's catching on among the untrained?

The attacks in Britain, when set alongside the recent rise in Islamist activity in North Africa and recent arrests of terrorist sympathizers in Spain and Germany can only mean one thing, says Claude Moniquet, Chairman of the European Strategic Intelligence and Security Centre, a think tank in Brussels. "The al Qaeda groups are trying to open a new jihad. Mostly there are two jihads -- one in Afghanistan and another in Iraq. They are trying to open a new one in…Europe."

Details about the men in custody continue to come in, but to call plots like this one in Britain as having a hard "link to al Qaeda" might be premature. At any rate, analysts say many recent terror plotters have had no formal training from al Qaeda-proper in weaponry or logistics.

Advent of the 'do-it-yourself' jihadists

They are simply very angry people who are inspired by the violent actions they've seen carried out by al Qaeda and others and are desperate to get in on the act, even if they don't quite know how, says Julianne Smith, Director of the Europe Program and the Transatlantic Dialogue on Terrorism at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"I think it just shows the continuing evolution, that we've gone from a highly trained set of individuals, to people who appear to have had some limited training to groups that appear not to know what they’re really doing whatsoever," she says.

That these men's bombs, like those of the so-called suitcase bombers who targeted German train stations last summer, failed to go off is a blessing. But it may mean that in the long term Europe could be facing more bombs from more bombers, expert and inept. The desire to kill seems to be there, as does rudimentary information about building explosive devices.

Internet coaching breeding new terrorists

"As a potential bomber, you may not want to take the risk of traveling to the Middle East," says Smith. "You may be confused on how to find the individuals you would need to find, you may not want to sign up for the broader al Qaeda movement, but what you're going to do is find the information you need to get the job done, essentially on the Internet."

And while Claude Moniquet emphasized that Britain’s participation in the Iraq war and Germany’s involvement in Afghanistan mean the two countries are particularly vulnerable, all of Europe is a potential target for terrorists.

"It's important to understand that for the jihadis, they don't make a lot of distinctions between the countries," Moniquet says. "All the so-called western world is a target, for one very simple reason: they absolutely hate the way we live. They hate democracy and they hate equality between women and men. There are a lot of reasons for them to try and fight Europe."

The expanding body of evidence implies that anyone in any profession could be part of a sleeper cell intent on death and destruction in Europe.

No blueprint for modern terrorist

Among the eight suspects arrested so far in the British investigation, at least six are doctors, including a Jordanian surgeon and an Iraqi physician. An Indian doctor is also being held in Australia in connection with the London and Glasgow attempted bombings after trying to flee the country with a one-way ticket to India.

None of those being held are British citizens, but the surprise has been evident that such well-educated and well-situated people, who once as doctors took an oath to help those in need, could take another oath to kill.

Addressing the issue of the suspect's backgrounds, the former head of the British government's joint intelligence committee, Pauline Neville-Jones, said recently that, essentially, anything now seems possible. "It means obviously that you can't make any assumptions or have any preconceptions about the kind of people who might become terrorists."