Fact check: Disinformation's impact on the US election

The US presidential election campaign was fueled by false and misleading claims swirling on social media, targeting both presidential candidates. The main narratives against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris were that she allegedly worked as a prostitute, or that she ran over a little girl with a car. The Republican candidate Donald Trump was also hit with many claims, including one that said he was allegedly sitting on an incontinence pad during a talk show.

However, the volume of disinformation against Harris far exceeded that against Trump, experts said well before November 5.

With disinformation on the rise, false information was spread by players within the US as well as foreign actors trying to interfere in the election.

What role did actors from outside the US play?

US authorities warned about foreign adversaries "conducting additional influence operations intended to undermine public confidence in the integrity of US elections and stoke divisions among Americans."

"Russia is the most active threat," the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said in a joint statement on November 4, a day before the election.

Influencers linked to Russia, in particular, were manufacturing videos and creating fake articles to undermine the legitimacy of the election, instilling fear in voters regarding the election process, and suggesting that Americans were using violence against each other due to political preferences, the statement read.

"Russia has sought to sow chaos in the election, as predicted, and there is a sense that it accelerated efforts near the end of the election cycle. We won't know how successful it was until more forensic work is done," John P. Wihbey, associate professor at Northeastern University in Boston and a founder of Northeastern's Internet Democracy Initiative, told DW. 

"China has shown interest in manipulating the election, too," he said, adding that the role of TikTok and its algorithm remains a subject of great concern and debate.

A lesson learned for authorities from past US elections was to quickly make these attempts public, said Katja Munoz, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations. "The strategy behind that is to build trust, no matter if it's an attempt by foreign or domestic actors or in general," she said.

Who are the major players when it comes to disinformation?

X, the platform formerly known as Twitter that is now owned by billionaire Elon Musk, and Telegram have seen a lot of disinformation spread on their platforms, according to Wihbey. "Because of its size, YouTube is [also] likely to have seen a sizable volume of efforts to spread false information. And there are many accounts there that sit right on the line between disinformation and just highly partisan information," he said.

False or misleading claims by Musk about the US election have been viewed 2 billion times, researchers from the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) found in a report released right before the election. One of the most viewed false tweets insinuated that Democrats were importing illegal voters —this post alone was viewed over 47 million times.

Musk's political posts on X received over 17 billion views since he endorsed Trump in July — more than twice as many views as all political campaigning ads on X combined, CCDH said.

"Musk clearly tweaked the algorithm to favor his election messages advocating for Trump," said Wihbey, adding that was something new altogether in election politics and social media.

"X served as a real gateway between the fringe and the mainstream, much more so than it did in past election cycles when it had different ownership," he said.

Did artificial intelligence play a role?

While there were some instances of AI-generated fakes, such as an audio of  President Joe Biden calling on voters in the New Hampshire primary election not to go to the polls, and deepfakes of superstar Taylor Swift endorsing Trump or of Vice President Kamala Harris wearing communist attire, "we have not seen the kind of wave of gen AI deepfakes that many feared would swamp the election," said Wihbey.

"But has this really convinced people not to vote for Kamala Harris? I don't think it's that easy," said Munoz. Patriarchal structures could have played a role, she added, or fear over the tanking economy leading many to think Trump was more competent — even though they might not like him or find his comments revolting.

"Harris did not have a lot of time to define her personality, brand and platform — the narratives around her — so it was easier to make false claims about her," said Wihbey.

Researchers also uncovered AI-driven bot networks drumming up support for Trump just shortly before the election.

Does disinformation have the power to influence the vote?

While there was a lot of disinformation blasting on all channels, it's unclear whether it changed how people voted. "It probably served to reinforce existing narratives and to create solidarity and energy on the conservative right," said Wihbey.

That view is echoed by Curd Knüpfer, associate professor at the Digital Democracy Centre at the University of Southern Denmark. He said disinformation didn't tip the scales. However, neither did the facts.

"All in all, it was a relatively honest election campaign. Not necessarily in that certain statements were true — there was a bunch of lies. But Trump articulated quite openly what he wants and what he stands for," he said.

However, the goal of disinformation isn't just to convince people of certain narratives — that might not work that often, said Munoz. The long-term goal was to weaken trust in media and democracy. "And that almost always happens if you see so much junk — even if I don't believe that, I'm convinced there's only junk online — so mission achieved. That's how many people have turned away from mainstream media," she said. "Influencers, podcasters, pundits then fill that hole."

Trump himself created his own social media platform Truth Social in early 2022 after he was kicked off what was then Twitter following the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol by his supporters. Musk announced he would reinstate Trump's account in November 2022.

"Conservative groups and individuals have generally shown greater vulnerability to engaging with and spreading disinformation," said Wihbey, adding that it would require more research to find out whether that was the case in this election cycle. Conspiracy theories surrounding the assassination attempts on Trump in the summer were generated and shared by both sides, he said.

And mis- and disinformation is bound to continue. US authorities have said they expect foreign adversaries, particularly Russia, to keep pushing disinformation in the coming weeks, well after the election is over.

Carla Reveland contributed to this report.
Edited by: Silja Thoms

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