Germany: Far-right AfD wins first state vote since WWII

The far-right AfD won the election in Thuringia, securing 32.8% of the vote, preliminary results showed after all votes were counted.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came second, winning 23.6%.

The upstart, left-wing party Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was third with 15.8% of the vote.

Germany’s ruling coalition parties, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentalist Greens and business-focused Free Democrats (FDP), received a drubbing at the polls.

The SPD managed to make it into the state legislature with a mere 6.1% of the vote, but the Greens and the FDP failed to meet the 5% threshold.

In Saxony, the CDU emerged victorious with 31.9%, while the AfD came a close second securing 30.6% of the vote. The BSW was third with 11.8%.

The SPD and the Greens took a hit in Saxony, with the former winning just 7.3% and the latter 5.1% of the vote.

The results mean talks for government formation could be tough and protracted in both states.

Several business associations have expressed concern after the far-right AfD and the left-wing, anti-immigrant BSW scored huge gains in the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia.

Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research, warned of significant economic and social consequences.

"The AfD in particular stands for an extremely neoliberal economic policy, for protectionism and isolation from Europe, for less immigration of skilled workers and less openness and diversity," he told Reuters.

Fratzscher believes the election results will lead to an exodus of firms and skilled workers from both states.

The German Economic Institute (IW) also sees the results as a bad signal.

"This cannot bode well for the economy, because it needs political predictability, institutional stability and reliable framework conditions," IW director Michael Hüther told Reuters.

Ralf Wintergerst, president of the digital association Bitkom, said the results are a "warning signal for the digital economy."

"Germany must remain a country that stands for openness to the world and innovation," he said, adding that neither AfD nor BSW represents these values.

Monika Schnitzer, Chair of the German Council of Economic Experts, warned that government formation will be difficult in Saxony and Thuringia, and that it "could take weeks or even months."

She said no political decisions could be taken without a stable democratic majority.

"But that means that companies, universities, cultural institutions and citizens have no planning security," said the economist.

"But uncertainty is toxic, especially for the economy," she noted, pointing out that "companies will delay investment plans or abandon them altogether, with negative effects on growth."

The mayor of Berlin, Kai Wegner from the center-right CDU, says that the projected results of the votes in Thuringia and Saxony should make mainstream politicians rethink their ways.

"This is a wake-up call that we must not ignore, maybe the last one we get," he told Germany's Tagesspiegel newspaper.

With state polls boosting the far-right AfD and the leftist-populist BSW, Wegner said the results "show, in a shocking manner, that many people in our country no longer feel represented by the centrist democratic parties."

He urged all democratic forces, including those in his own party, to reconsider "if the course in recent years was the right one, if the worries and fears of the citizens were taken seriously," adding that the future of democracy was at stake.

The latest projections for the outcome of the elections in the eastern state of Thuringia show the Alternative for Germany (AFD) nearly nine points ahead of the Christian Democrats (CDU).

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), was firmly in third place, ahead of the Left Party — the old party of BSW leader Wagenknecht.

The 88-seat parliament is projected to have 31 AfD lawmakers, 23 from the CDU, 15 from BSW, and 13 from the Left Party.

Even if the AfD is not in the government, the fact they're on track to control over one-third of the seats means they would be able to block some state assembly decisions, such as voting for judges.

Some two and a half hours after polling stations closed in Saxony, exit polls still gave the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) a thin lead over the Alternative for Germany (AfD), followed by the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

If the projections are confirmed, the AfD would be two seats behind the CDU's 43 in the state assembly, with BSW, SPD, and the Greens also represented in the Saxony legislature.

The state parliament has 120 seats in total.

Talking to public broadcaster ARD, AfD leader in Thuringia Björn Höcke said that creating a governing coalition without his far-right party "would not be good for the state."

"I  can only warn against it," he said. "Whoever wants stability in Thuringia has to integrate the AfD."

Höcke also said that some members of the center-right CDU were opposed to the party's stance towards the AfD. The CDU has repeatedly dismissed any speculation of entering into coalitions with the far-right party.

On Sunday, Höcke asked, "How long can the CDU leadership keep up their policy of going against their base?"

The firebrand leader also said that "changes will only happen with the AfD."

Exit polls put the AfD in first place in Thuringia on 32.8%, ahead of the CDU on 23.8%. 

The pro-environment Green Party is projected to enter the new state parliament in Saxony, though just barely — they are expected to win 5.3%-5.5% of the vote, scraping by the 5% threshold to qualify for seats in the assembly if a party's candidates fail to win two or more of the state parliament's 120 seats outright.

Green Party co-leader Omid Nouripour said there was still a chance for his party to continue participating in the Saxony state government.

In Thuringia, where the Greens are projected to stay below the 5% threshold, he said the party was in for a painful reckoning with the result.

But he also said that the lead of the far-right AfD in Thuringia is a cause for even bigger concern.

"To be honest, my pain tonight is marginal compared to the fact that we have a profound turning point and an openly far-right party has become the strongest force in a state parliament for the first time since 1949," he said.

Despite coming in second to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Thuringia, members of Germany's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) said they have a mandate to form the next government.

The state leader of the CDU, Mario Voigt, said the election results signaled a need for political change in the state.

"As the CDU, we see this as an opportunity for political change under the leadership of the CDU," Voigt said in the state capital of Erfurt.

The CDU plans to lead coalition talks to form a "sensible government in Thuringia under the leadership of the CDU," Voigt said, adding that he would approach the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), who are projected to finish in fifth place, while expressing openness to working with the new left-wing populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

Voigt reiterated his party's rejection of a coalition with the far-right populist AfD.

The head of Saxony's state government, Michael Kretschmer, said his conservative CDU party was capable of remaining in power.

Exit polls from Sunday's elections give his party a thin lead over the far-right AfD.

The CDU has excluded building a coalition with the AfD. Without an absolute majority, the CDU will be forced to look for coalition partners among the remaining parties in the state parliament, including the BSW, the Greens, and the SPD. 

Kretschmer said the "coalition accord would be made for the state and for the people."

"It won't be easy," he said.

"But one thing is certain: with many discussions and the will to do something for this state, we can succeed in using this election result to give Saxony a stable government that serves the state and leads the way with humility," he added.

With the leftist-populist BSW projected to be third-strongest party in Thuringia, BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht hinted at seeking a coalition with the conservative CDU.

"We very much hope that we can eventually get a good government with the CDU — probably also with the [center-left] SPD," Wagenknecht told Germany's state broadcaster ARD.

Exit polls in the state's Sunday election put the CDU a distant second behind the far-right AfD. 

Wagenknecht once again dismissed the idea of ruling together with the AfD, and denounced radical leader Björn Höcke over his nationalistic worldview.

At the same time, Wagenknecht said the BSW would need to see changes in Germany's foreign policy before joining a state government. In line with her previous statements about pursuing talks over the Ukraine war, the leftist leader said there should be more "peace and diplomacy."

"This will be our conditions for a government," she said.

Radical AfD Thuringia leader Björn Höcke described the vote in his state as a "historic victory" after exit polls put his party far ahead.

"This fills me with so, so, so much pride and satisfaction," Höcke told his supporters in Thuringia's state capital, Erfurt.

"We are ready to take government responsibility," he added.

Höcke said his party is willing to invite other political factions for talks about forming a coalition, despite other major parties dismissing this possibility ahead of the vote.

The 52-year-old former history teacher has repeatedly drawn criticism with his statements about Germany's past, including calling a monument to Holocaust victims in Berlin a "monument of shame."

In 2019, a German court ruled that Höcke can legally be described as a "fascist."

The projected outcomes of the ballots in Thuringia and Saxony are a "slap in the face" for the three parties in Germany's national government, according to a senior representative of the federal opposition center-right CDU party.

The ruling coalition parties "must ask themselves, how they can stop their disastrous policies," CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann told public broadcaster ZDF.

Before being ousted by Scholz's SPD with the backing of the Greens and the FDP in 2021, the conservative CDU was in power for 16 years under long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Talking to ZDF, Linnemann urged the return of politics for people and called for a new federal government.

"It cannot go on like this," he said.

The co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), Tino Chrupalla, has described the outcome of the state election in Thuringia as a "clear mandate" to form a government.

"We have, in Thuringia, a clear lead ... so we also have a clear mandate to govern," he told public broadcaster ZDF.

"That is also what democracy is," he added.

Chrupalla also said that his party was willing to talk to all other parties.

"For those who want to be credible while doing politics … and want to take voters' choices into account, there will be no more politics without AfD," he said.

Exit polls put the AfD on track to win around 31% of the vote in Thuringia, ahead of the CDU on 24%. All other parties have ruled out entering into a governing coalition with the AfD.

While populist parties were reinforced by the ballots in Thuringia and Saxony, the ruling center-left Social Democrats (SPD) looked set to stay on single digits, according to exit polls.

In Thuringia, the party of federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz is projected to win 7% of the vote, or 1.2% of the vote less than in the previous state election.

In Saxony, the party managed to increase its previous score — but only by 0.8% of the vote, bringing it up to 8.5%.

The chancellor and his party have struggled to project stability with the coalition government that also includes the pro-environment Green party and the business-focused Free Democrats.

Exit polls put the Greens are the FDP behind the SPD in both elections.

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is set for a resounding victory in the eastern state of Thuringia, with exit polls giving them 30.5% of the vote, ahead of center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 24.5% and the upstart leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)with 16%.

In Saxony, the AfD is projected to win 30% of the vote to the CDU's 31.5% in a much tighter race. The BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, is expected to win 12% of support.

The results put the AfD in prime position to participate in a state government for the first time in their history. However, other parties have said they would not enter coalitions with the anti-immigration party.

Even if other parties manage to form wide coalitions to keep the AfD out of power, the results of the Sunday vote are sure to leave the mainstream political factions shaken and raise questions about the national election next September.