Return to politics?

With tensions between Pakistan's powerful military and its civilian government currently on the boil, former President Pervez Musharraf has announced he will return to his homeland from self-imposed exile to lead a recently formed party in parliamentary elections.

Musharraf, speaking via video link from Dubai over the weekend, told a crowd of around 7,000 gathered in Karachi that he would return "despite all sorts of danger to my life."

"There are efforts to scare me, but these people don't know that I'm not among the afraid."

Standing as a major obstacle, however, is an arrest warrant that could see Musharraf detained upon his arrival in Karachi later this month. Issued in February last year, the warrant seeks Musharraf on charges of failing to provide adequate security to former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto before her assassination in 2007.

Musharraf says the case against him is "baseless" and that he would stand in elections scheduled to be held by 2013.

The 68-year-old former general left Pakistan in 2008 after offering his resignation in the face of threats of impeachment. Having seized power in a 1999 coup, his popularity plummeted after he became embroiled in a row with the judiciary and briefly imposed a state of emergency in 2007.

One voice among many

Pakistan expert Olaf Kellerhof, who is based in Islamabad with the Friedrich Neumann Foundation for Freedom, said Musharraf's return could complicate an already tempestuous political landscape.

"If we see the reaction of the interior minister to warn him that he will be arrested, apparently they feel this could affect them," Kellerhof told Deutsche Welle.

"People are quite fed up with the current situation. Inflation has gone up, food has become quite expensive, gas is hardly available, you have enormous queues in front of filling stations, and so on. And the more players coming in promising a change, the more the [ruling Pakistan Peoples Party] feels threatened."

Kellerhof added, however, that "what is being reported now in the news is a little over-exaggerated. [His return] will not lead to an 'earthquake,' as Musharraf has promised. He would be one player amongst others."

Eye on elections

Britta Petersen, who is based in Lahore with the Green Political Foundation, said Musharraf's return should be viewed within the context of recent pressure on the government of President Asif Ali Zardari to call early elections. Zardari's aides have signaled elections are likely in September or October this year.

Petersen added, however, Musharraf would find it tough garnering significant support in the polls if he campaigns. "There are still vivid memories, especially of the most recent years of his tenure as president," she told Deutsche Welle. "It seems that in the military, people were not satisfied with how he handled the crisis in the end and they have also started to look for other players in this field, and that would be mainly Imran Khan, who seems to be enjoying the support of parts of the military right now."

Petersen also said the political landscape in Pakistan had changed since Musharraf left the country and that this would count against him in the polls.

Musharraf has indicated he will return between January 27 and 30. Both Petersen and Kellerhof believe there is every chance the Zardari government could go through with its threat to have him arrested upon arrival. Whether it will risk expanding public sympathy for a man who still has a following - albeit diminished - is another matter entirely.

Author: Darren Mara
Editor: Anne Thomas