Fresh hope for new talks on Sudan cease-fire

There is new hope for Sudan: On August 14, talks on a cease-fire in the country are to begin in Geneva. Switzerland and Saudi Arabia are hosting the talks and the US is mediating before they start. Representatives from the African Union, Egypt, the United Nations (UN) and the United Arab Emirates have been invited as observers.

But this conference is not the first of its kind. Last year, the US tried to engage in similar mediation in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, but without much success. Past talks in Geneva moderated by the UN didn't result in much either. Still, the UN Secretary-General's Envoy to Sudan, Ramtane Lamamra, described the discussions as an "encouraging inital step" in a long and complex process.

No winners

The US thinks a breakthrough may be possible this time. The situation has changed, a senior US official told US broadcaster ABC off the record. Firstly, the horror of what is happening there during war necessitates involvement. Secondly, they said, there appears to be agreement among the US' partners in Africa and in the Gulf that nobody is going to benefit from further destabilization.

Additionally there are also some positive signals coming from the parties to the conflict. In a message on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, the head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) wrote that his group was ready for talks and that he welcomed the invitation. The RSF, estimated to have 70,000 to 100,000 personnel, is more like a guerilla force and one of the main parties to the conflict.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also been pushing for the other main party in the conflict, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) to take part in the talks. The SAF has about 200,000 personnel, is headed by Abdel Fattah Burhan and works more like a regular army. 

Blinken spoke with Burhan by phone but official confirmation of the SAF's participation has yet to come. According to media reports, Burhan had been open to the idea but wanted to have more talks beforehand to set out conditions. Apparently, he is concerned about the UAE's participation. The Gulf country is widely seen as a supporter of the RSF.

Positive signs

Involving external actors makes sense, said Ahmed Isam Aldin, an activist with SudanUprising Germany, a group that advocates for the concerns of the pro-democratic protest movement in Sudan that wanted to see a transition to democracy, but which is now suffering under the civil war started by two military groups vying for power.

The US and Saudi Arabia have understood that the circle must be expanded, Isam Aldin told DW.

"So the progress from the other talks is because of the inclusion of other actors who used to work separately," he argued. "That is why I think this could be a positive development."

Success isn't guaranteed, he conceded. Especially because Sudan is currently breaking into two halves, controlled by two opponents. "We could be heading for a Libyan scenario," he said, referring to the fact that Libya has been split into two governments.

The conference's main ideas are months behind what is actually happening on the ground, Hager Ali, a researcher and political scientist based at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, told DW.

"Revolution devours its children — that applies to Sudan too," Ali argued. " Dagalo and Burhan both wanted to push through their ideas of ​​a [suitable] political system. However, due to enormous logistical challenges associated with the fighting, they've had to delegate a lot of work to local militias and to further recruit fighters and militias from all over the place. The end result is that they have increasingly lost control of the dynamics of this war."

The militias are using the war for their own ends, Gerrit Kurtz, an expert on Africa with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, wrote in a May study.

"These non-state armed groups are each pursuing their own objectives, which only temporarily coincide with those of the SAF or (to a lesser extent) the RSF," Kurtz noted.

That is exactly what makes the upcoming talks in Geneva so complicated, Ali added. "The national actors have their own interests, and they're multiplied at the sub-national level. The situation on the ground has become much more complex and requires a different approach during the peace talks."

Ending the humanitarian crisis

The humanitarian crisis in Sudan also means that an end to fighting is desperately needed.

The UN's International Organization for Migration says that almost 10 million people have been displaced in the whole country. And around 25 million people — that is about half of the population — are in urgent need of humanitarian aid.

Various international bodies, including Doctors without Borders and the UN's World Food Program have said that famine is starting to take hold in some parts of the country.

That includes in North Darfur's Zamzam, where there are currently between 200,000 and 500,000 displaced people.

However the country's Federal Humanitarian Aid Commission said this was inaccurate and that conditions in Zamzam were "not consistent" with famine.

If there were a famine in Sudan, this could trigger a UN Security Council resolution that would allow relief to be delivered by international organizations across borders. However some Sudanese officials believe this would offer a pretext for international intervention.

This story was originally written in German.