Georgia: What next after 'foreign agent' bill protests?

Last week, the world watched as Georgians took to the streets of the capital city of Tbilisi to defend their fledgling democracy. The protests erupted after the ruling party, Georgian Dream, backed the "foreign agent" bill which, according to Brussels, was incompatible with European values. 

The list would have included NGOs and media that received 20% of their funding from overseas. While the authorities suggested the bill's sole intention was to provide financial transparency, the opposition and protestors accused the government of trying to demonize critical press and civil society. Protestors managed to pressure the lawmakers to the point where they had to withdraw the bill, viewed by protesters as similar to Russian legislation. 

"This law in Russia destroyed civil society. We don't want to have the same laws as Russia has now. You can see lots of youngsters here, they have never seen the Soviet Union and hopefully, we will never see it again," one of the protesters told DW.

Although the government has dropped the bill, protesters doubt whether their government is competent and motivated enough to lead them into the European Union.

How will the protests affect Georgia's EU candidacy?

Last June, the European Commission deferred Georgia's EU candidacy. The decision sparked mass protests in Tbilisi that showed Georgians discontent with the government's perceived failure to secure the candidacy. 

Ghia Nodia, professor at Ilia State University, suggests that Brussels might face a dilemma when deciding weather to grant Georgia the candidacy or not at the end of this year.  

"Now the question is to whom the EU candidacy should be given to the people or the government? To encourage Georgian people or to punish the Georgian government?"

While the US and EU supported the Georgians' actions, they also urged the government to focus on the EU Commission's 12-point recommendation on democratic reforms.

"Announcement to withdraw the draft law on 'transparency of foreign influence' is a good sign, now concrete legal steps need to follow," Josep Borell, the EU's foreign policy chief, tweeted.

Does the Georgian government want to join the EU?

EU and NATO membership are seen as the top priority for Georgians against the backdrop of the country's complicated history with Russia, which occupied 20% of its territory in the 2008 war. 81% support membership of both blocs according to a recent National Democratic Institute poll.

So why is the Georgian Dream party officially declaring EU aspirations, but taking steps that would undermine its EU prospects? According to some experts, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is crucial to understanding Georgia's duality. 

"The Georgian government put their eggs in the basket of Russian victory. They believe that Russia is dangerous and aggressive, and that's why we should be appeasing Russia. When Russians are resentful, it's seen as dangerous to be close to the West," Nodia explained.

Caught between Moscow and Brussels 

Notwithstanding the government's anti-western rhetoric, it actually claimed to have been copying US legislation on "foreign agents," known as the Foreign Agents Registration Act — the same rhetoric used by the Kremlin before introducing its repressive law, which led to a crackdown on dissent.

In a piece for the Georgian Institute of Politics, Stefan Meister of the German Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank, outlined the difference between the US law and the proposed Georgian one.

"While the US law from the 1930s is focused on political lobbying, the Georgian law is about the country's civil society," he wrote. 

Moreover, the Georgian version would have first and foremost targeted NGOs supported by the EU and the US, which Tbilisi views as its main strategic partners.

According to observers, the idea that the government has a Russian agenda has become part of mainstream thinking. As a result the government's credibility among Georgians has been undermined, given the anti-Kremlin mood in Georgian society.

In the context of Russia's influence on Georgian politics, critics point to the role of the billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, a former prime minister and founder of the Georgian Dream party, who made his fortune in Russia. Although he has officially left politics, he is still believed to be pulling the strings in the background. 

In an interview with DW, Giorgi Gakharia, a former prime minister and ex-ally, said that Ivanishvili could be behind the law. 

"He is ruling Georgia from the shadows with the help of his puppets without any formal responsibility. The ‘foreign agent' law and the shift in foreign policy would have been simply impossible without Ivanishvili's instruction. That's why we need to receive EU candidacy, this the only tool that will reverse the country's authoritarian development," he said.

Edited by: Rob Mudge