German coalition's demise hits unsettled nation

Germany's first-ever three-way coalition — comprising the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) — has collapsed, signaling the end of what the polls say is the most unpopular government of all time. In September, only 3% of respondents to a survey carried out by the pollster Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research said they believed this government was still good for Germany.

Yet studies such as the Happiness Atlas 2024, the German government's Equality Report and a new survey by the German Institute for Economic Research have found that, with inflation improving and the pandemic restrictions long past, people in Germany say they are increasingly satisfied with life.

John Kampfner, the Reuters news agency's former correspondent in Germany, has observed that the mood is always much worse than the actual situation in the country. He argues that Germans have a basic tendency to complain.

"This tendency to complain always gives people an excuse to exempt themselves from responsibility — it's a kind of paralysis," he said. Kampfner believes "Germans have become too comfortable. They have always had it very good — there was stability, and everything was solid. But there is no culture of innovation; of taking a risk; of starting something new. When it comes to digitalization, for example, they're stuck in the Middle Ages."

Resistant to change

Ivan Krastev, a Bulgarian political scientist, recently summed it up as follows: The last 30 years have been so good for Germany, people want to continue living this way. But the world has radically changed, not least because of the war in Ukraine. Now Germans, spoiled by success, are being forced to change their lifestyle. This goes against their mindset, which says that all should remain as it is.

So what does it take to reform a country unwilling to change? Kampfner believes he knows: above all, a strong chancellor acting like a captain, not a referee. A good example of this was on Wednesday evening, when Chancellor Olaf Scholz explained his decision to fire Finance Minister Christian Lindner in clear terms. Kampfner said this was far too rarely done in the past, and believes 80% or 90% of the government's problems came down to Scholz's leadership style.

"Olaf Scholz was very courageous in his speech about a turning point — he took a risk," he said, referring to the February 2022 speech the chancellor gave shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "The chancellor had decided that Germany needs many radical changes. His popularity soared following that speech. But then, too little happened. Two steps forward were followed by two steps back. This government lacks leadership."

Hedwig Richter, professor of history at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich, believes the government's poor communication skills are also to blame for the political distress. She said the government treated the population like children, and that its only response to opinion polls was to worry about them.

"It would have been important to say: OK, we live in a democracy: We have to talk to people like adults," Richter told DW. "We have to say what's going on, which is what the Greens tried to do for a while. We have to say that the renewal will be painful. But that such change is absolutely worthwhile. And if we refuse to embrace both an ecological transformation and a new security policy, it will end up being much more expensive, and it will destroy our security."

However, she also said the government's failures had much earlier origins: in the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel, which formed in 2005. Under Merkel, the country rested on the bolster it had, and on its prosperity. Now Germany has multiple crises — and the repercussions are harsh.

"For a long time, we Germans thought we could outsource security," she said. "We also thought we could just ignore migration, without needing to find a real solution. And we thought we could simply postpone all of the ecological disasters. But now we're living in a time when all the side effects of our actions are suddenly backfiring on us."

Germans need to hear 'stories of success'

Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research, recently called for a "German Kennedy moment," referring to the moment when, during his inaugural speech for the US presidency in 1961, Kennedy said: "Ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country." In other words, Fratzscher said the country needs a positive narrative to bring Germany out of its malaise.

Sociologist Harald Welzer has been working on the idea of telling "stories of success," as he calls them, for a while now. Welzer and his fellow campaigners aim to look to the future; to motivate people and show that a lot of change is possible, even on a small scale — with constructive ideas. How does he explain Germany's steadfast attachment to the past?

"We were, of course, the winners of the postwar period — especially West Germany," he said. "It was a story of economic advancement and prosperity lasting two generations, which was fueled by globalization. And everyone thought it would go on like that forever. Once you're stuck in a model of prosperity, you naturally don't want to give up any of it."

Welzer also blames the media for the negative mood in Germany: Conservative media outlets — especially German dailies such as Bild, Welt and the FAZ — have launched a media campaign targeting the Greens, the party that is emphasizing that Germany needs to modernize its economy in the 21st century.

"And the moment they start putting that into concrete terms, everyone screams that they are imposing rules and regulations. And of course, it's the messenger who in the end gets beaten up."

This article was originally written in German.

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