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Germany narrowly avoids recession with slight Q3 growth

October 30, 2024

The German economy is estimated to have grown unexpectedly in the third quarter after contraction, preventing a recession. The country's export-heavy economy has been suffering due to decreasing industrial orders.

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Germany was briefly in a recession in 2023Image: Burkhard Schubert/Future Image/IMAGO

Germany's federal statistics agency Destatis unveiled its quarterly estimate of the country's GDP on Wednesday.

The numbers showed a slight growth of 0.2% in the third quarter of 2024, following a second-quarter contraction of 0.1%.

Europe's largest economy has been hit by declining industrial orders, weakening its export-heavy bottom line. Lowering demand, increasing costs of raw materials, and higher energy prices have compounded to keep the German market sluggish.

What does the growth mean for Germany?

The third quarter's estimated growth sees Germany narrowly dodging a recession, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. 

The figures came as a surprise as the government had been expecting a renewed slight decline after the second quarter output. 

"This is still far from what we need, but at least it is a ray of hope," German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said.

"The economy is proving more robust than previously forecast and the technical recession expected by many has failed to materialize."

Scholz meets industry leaders to discuss economic crisis

While the slight growth was welcome news in Germany, Destatis also said on Wednesday that inflation had risen slightly, from 1.6% in September — its lowest point for more than three years — back up to 2% for October, based on preliminary figures.

No bump in unemployment rate

Destatis also released figures on unemployment, which remained almost unchanged compared to the previous month at around 2.8 million people, or 6%.

Andrea Nahles, head of Germany's Federal Employment Agency, said the usual autumn bump in employment figures "had failed to materialize this year."

According to experts, this is the first time in 20 years that unemployment has not fallen noticeably in the last months of the year. However, in the long term, Germany's unemployment figures remain relatively low.

The surprise expansion of Germany's economy buoyed the growth of the eurozone, for which figures were also released on Wednesday. 

While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.

es/lo (dpa, Reuters)