Germany: Scholz urges calm debate on election date

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz signals openness to discuss an election date, shifting from his earlier plan for a confidence vote in January and a potential March 2025 snap election. What are the stances of German authorities, governing, and opposition parties? And is a January snap election, as called for by the conservative opposition, feasible?

The leader of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, has called for early elections to be held on January 19.

"New elections could be held in Germany on January 19," he told Stern magazine and RTL. 

Merz justified his proposed election date, noting it would precede the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on January 20.

He said two and a half months would also be enough time to prepare for the election.

Earlier, Merz had called for a vote of confidence to be held in November instead of January, as proposed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

He suggested that the vote take place next Wednesday, when Scholz is already scheduled to brief parliament, and explicitly urged him to agree to this date.

The Federal Returning Officer Ruth Brand has appealed to Chancellor Olaf Scholz not to rush into setting a new election date.

For organizational reasons, this would be risky, writes Brand in a letter to Scholz entitled "Challenges and risks of an early election in January or February 2025".

"Overall, I see a high risk in this case that the cornerstone of democracy and confidence in the integrity of the election could be violated," the supervisor warns. 

"As the proper preparation and organization of the election is essential for citizens' trust in democracy, it is necessary to make full use of the 60-day period after the dissolution of the German Bundestag," Brand continues. 

This is necessary "in order to be able to take all necessary measures in a legally secure and timely manner," she adds.
 
"The very short period of 60 days would be significantly shortened if dates and deadlines fall during the Christmas period or between the years," Brand writes. This could lead to "incalculable risks at all levels," she adds.

Potential challenges, according to Brand, include paper procurement and print vendor contracts, as well as the need for special security measures due to increasing hybrid threats.

The German government has brushed off a post by tech billionaire Elon Musk, who called Olaf Scholz a "fool" on his social media platform X. 

Deputy government spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann took a playful dig at the US tycoon, saying "on X you have Narrenfreiheit," which translates from German as "the freedom to behave like a fool."

The word refers to the freedom of revelers to behave without inhibition during Germany's traditional carnival season, which begins next week.

Following the collapse of Scholz's three-party coalition on Wednesday, Musk posted in German on X: "Olaf ist ein Narr," which translates as "Olaf is a fool."

Asked later about the comment, a tight-lipped Scholz simply called it "not very friendly," adding that internet companies are "not organs of state so I did not even pay it any attention."

Economy Minister and Deputy Chancellor Robert Habeck, who made way for a candidacy by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in 2021, confirmed his intent to stand as the Greens' candidate for the top job in the upcoming elections. 

Habeck said in a video published online that during his time in office, and particularly "the last few days," he had found "a new strength, to fight again. A strength forged in experience." 

"I am prepared to offer you my experience, my strength and my responsibility — also as chancellor, if you so wish," he said.

DW's Jens Thurau writes that Habeck's chances, like his party's, are rather slim. Read the full article here. 

Asked by reporters if he could go into more detail on exact dates for when a confidence vote might be called, Chancellor Olaf Scholz referred to the various aspects of setting up an early vote in Germany — such as giving candidates and parties the chance to register and campaign, and allowing election officials to prepare. He said this process rightly involved multiple stakeholders, including himself as chancellor. 

"But what's best is that you do it together," he said. "And that's why I named the questions about which this resolves, the things that we still want to decide."

"I believe that it can be done if we are all of good intentions," he said, and, without going into specifics, said he expected to find a "good solution" in cooperation "soon" and "quickly."

Asked how fellow EU leaders in Budapest had reacted to the news, Scholz said: "Many of them patted me on the shoulder. Very many of them are also experienced in the questions of coalition government. They know that it's not getting easier, but rather much more difficult — not just in Germany, but in other countries, too." 

Some had known for decades, he said, and others were just learning. 

Without naming names, but surely referring to neighboring Austria, he noted how one country's political leaders were looking to build a three-party coalition, and were now "looking at me and asking if that can work." 

As a result, he said he sensed a mood of "collegial solidarity" at the meeting in Hungary.

Chancellor Scholz spoke to reporters about the coalition collapse more directly at the close of the European Political Community meeting in Budapest than he had that morning. 

"On Wednesday evening already, I made clear that I wanted to quickly make early elections possible in Germany, so that clarity can soon return after the exit of the FDP from the coalition," Scholz said.

"We should discuss the possible date with as little agitation as possible," he added. "It would be good if the democratic parties in the Bundestag now reach a consensus on which laws can still be passed in the chamber this year." 

"This consensus could then answer the question of which moment is the right one to pose the confidence question in the Bundestag," Scholz said, "also with regard to the right potential date for the next election." 

He said any date would also need to provide election authorities with sufficient time to prepare and was not purely a question for political parties. 

Olaf Scholz has written to SPD members in his constituency in Brandenburg, saying he intends to stand for the same seat in the upcoming election. 

He wrote of the clash between him and former Finance Minister Christian Lindner that toppled the coalition. 

"With this, the argument in the federal government that was unbearable for us all is over," Scholz wrote. "Germany needs clarity and stability: Therefore we are aiming for an orderly transition to early elections at the start of 2025." 

Scholz said that as chancellor he carried responsibility for everyone in the country. 

"I would also like to continue carrying this responsibility as your member of parliament," he wrote. 

He did not make any mention of ambitions to run again for the role of chancellor, though this may well have been intentional given that this decision does not rest with him alone under the internal rules of the SPD.

A poll conducted on Thursday after news of the coalition collapse suggests that a majority of respondents would like Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to stand as the chancellor candidate for the Social Democrats in the early elections. 

Unlike some parties in Germany, the SPD had not yet made clear whether Chancellor Scholz would seek another term in the vote, originally scheduled for September 2025, meaning that the issue has been up for speculation for some time. 

Among all those polled, 57% favored Pistorius as an SPD candidate, versus just 13% for incumbent Olaf Scholz.

It was a closer race among those who said they were SPD supporters, though, with 58% picking Pistorius and 30% picking Scholz, according to the poll done on behalf of German broadcaster RTL/ntv.  

Pistorius is a relative newcomer to the Cabinet, parachuted in in January 2023 after the resignation of his predecessor Christine Lambrecht, following a series of PR blunders culminating in a social media video appeal for Ukraine recorded amid New Year's celebrations and fireworks displays in Berlin that critics argued struck an inappropriate tone. 

Lambrecht had also borne much of the brunt of criticism of Germany’s initial response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what was perceived by many as sluggish progress on providing Kyiv with weapons.

Pistorius has positioned himself since taking office as a strong advocate of the Bundeswehr military and of increasing support for Ukraine, often even criticizing the government and calling for additional support and funding. His term has also coincided with Germany providing more military equipment and more advanced weaponry to Ukraine. 

The 64-year-old has been consistently pulling in the highest approval ratings of leading German politicians in recent months. But Pistorius has not said that he would like to lead the SPD into the next vote. And with the party facing an uphill battle in the campaign, the position might prove only so tempting to him at present.

The secretary general of the Social Democrats, Matthias Miersch, told reporters on Friday that the party had seen more than 500 new members join in the two days since the coalition's breakup. 

Whether by accident or design, this came hot on the heels of a similar claim from the FDP, as the two parties traded blame for the disintegration of Germany's government. 

Miersch also said the party was preparing for the snap election campaign, saying that an "election victory conference" was planned for November 30 in Berlin, but that he couldn't yet provide further details. 

The SPD will need rather more than 500 new party members to secure election victory, at least judging by recent polls that put it at risk of losing its status as Germany's second-largest party to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). 

Pollsters put the SPD at around 16% support at present, less than half the anticipated support for the Christian Democrats. 

As the neoliberal FDP tried to focus on the positives on Friday, some members voiced dissatisfaction with former Finance Minister Christian Lindner's handling of the budget deadlock. 

Lawyer and climate activist Mathis Bönte said on X that he had asked party colleagues why Lindner alleges that Chancellor Scholz effectively asked him to break his oath of office by declaring a state of emergency to allow for extra government borrowing in 2025. 

"The war in Ukraine has already destabilized our society," Bönte wrote.

"What happens if Russia deposes the Ukrainian government? For me it's clear, that this poses an exceptional emergency situation that would justify exceeding the debt brake," according to the relevant part of German law, he argued. 

Others in the FDP have argued that securing necessary funding for Ukraine next year would have been possible without breaching the borrowing rules. 

Digitization expert and author Ann Cathrin Riedel said late on Thursday that she had left the party. 

"Today I notice once more, that my fundamental values as a democrat and a liberal do not align with the FDP," she wrote. 

And Lars Alt, a lawyer from Lower Saxony and former FDP member of the northern state's parliament, accused Lindner of acting "out of strategic calculation and out of fear of the 5% hurdle" that the party would have to clear to guarantee parliamentary representation in the next election.

He said this was "not just poor style, but also unworthy of the role of a governing party in Germany." 

"Facing this global and economic situation, one day after the US elections, you can't throw the center of Europe into a political crisis," Alt said on Instagram. 

"The content-based suggestions of the FDP regarding the economic situation were correct," Alt argued. "But as the smallest coalition partner, you must also be prepared to compromise for the good of the political stability of the country." 

A spokesman for the Free Democrats told reporters in Berlin that the party had received "roughly 650" new membership applications since the collapse of the coalition with the more left-leaning Social Democrats and Greens this week. 

"The FDP currently has around 70,000 members. Since the end of the coalition we're recording many new entrants and barely any departures," he said. 

Party leader Christian Lindner has taken a combative tone amid the collapse, blaming Scholz of the SPD for handling the deadlock poorly and accusing him of instigating a "calculated breach" of the coalition by firing him as finance minister. 

The FDP has been struggling in the polls like all three members of the erstwhile coalition. 

But the situation had been looking particularly grave for the FDP, with it hovering below the 5% threshold needed to guarantee representation in parliament after early elections, at least in polls conducted prior to Wednesday's breakup.

The FDP dropped out of the Bundestag after 2013's elections with 4.8% support, that time after a period in coalition government with the CDU.

It returned four years later and secured 11.4% of the vote in 2021's elections.

The president of Germany's Bundestag parliament, Bärbel Bas, alluded both to Donald Trump and to the German coalition collapse during her speech marking the 35th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, with the anniversary coming up on Saturday.

"We're experiencing turbulent days," Bas told the chamber. "Wednesday evening's events are occupying us all, and also the election in the United States and its consequences."

"In this moment let us reflect on the milestones of our history. And let us reinforce our values as enshrined in our constitution," she said. 

Bas went on to speak of the fall of the Berlin Wall 35 years ago and the path towards a reunified Germany in the aftermath of the Cold War. 

But she also recalled November 9, 1938, the Nazis' November pogroms against Jewish businesses and synagogues often called the Night of Broken Glass. 

And finally, Bas spoke of November 9, 1918, with the end of World War I and German capitulation imminent, when Social Democrat Philip Scheidemann declared what would become known as the Weimar Republic in the interwar years. Even then, he had urged people to protect the nascent democratic state he envisaged. 

"Our republic is no longer new today," Bas said. "But Scheidemann's words of warning remain up-to-date." 

"Particularly on November 9, this multifaceted date in our country's history, they are an appeal to us all: Let us take care of our democracy."

The exact dates might still be up for dispute — with Scholz hoping to deal with urgent business in parliament before disbanding his government completely, and the opposition critical of this — but the core steps towards snap elections in Germany are well established.

They're also liable to take at least six to eight weeks, no matter who gets their way on the pacing.  

Read David Ehl's outline of the path to an early German federal election. 

How to handle President Trump 2.0?

That is a big focus of European Union leaders meeting in Budapest today, according to the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who addressed the traveling press a few minutes ago.

To complicate matters the chair of the meeting is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a staunch Trump ally. 

Scholz emphasized that amid multiple crises, it was important that the EU remained "strong" and "united."

And the German chancellor has problems at home. Now head of a minority government, he's under pressure to call snap elections.

Before heading to the summit he stopped to take in the stunning Budapest skyline in the early morning sun. A moment of calm to reflect not just on Europe's destiny but his own.