Germany seen as less reliable than before, survey says

Germany is seen as a significantly less reliable partner in Europe and the United States than it was a year ago, a major new survey has found.

The most significant decreases, recorded by the joint German Marshall Fund and the Bertelsmann Foundation study, were in the United States, where there was a 9-point drop in the perception of Germany as a reliable partner and in Poland, where the was a 15-point decrease, as opposed to 2021.

Brandon Bohrn, researcher at the Bertelsmann Foundation and one of the authors of the report, said Germany's hesitant response in the first months of the Russian invasion of Ukrainewas likely to be main reason. "The further east you go in Europe there are feelings about Germany's involvement as it pertains to the war in Ukraine, and helping militarily — I think that is what we're seeing in the case of Poland," he told DW.

But Bohrn also pointed out that in Romania and Lithuania, where Germany is contributing to the NATO forces stationed in those countries, 82% and 70% of people respectively saw Germany as reliable. 

Given the press coverage of Germany's position, some might see that as surprising. In fact, despite the recent drop in trust, Germany remains among the top three most reliable countries in the world, along with Sweden and Canada, with an average of 70% of respondents considering Germany reliable. "We're complaining about a loss of reliability on a very, very high level," said the study's other co-author, Gesine Weber, GMF research analyst in Paris.

The opinion polls, which covered representative samples of 1,500 people in each of 14 countries (all the biggest European Union members, plus Turkey, the UK, the US and Canada), were carried out in late June and early July, four months into the Russia-Ukraine war. The questions asked respondents to rate each other's countries, as well as their own, on a variety of issues related to the countries' influence in world affairs.

What does 'reliable' mean?

Different respondents might have different conceptions of what "reliability" means, though the GMF analysts agree that, given the timing of the study, the international turmoil created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine will have dominated the reactions.

"What one might guess is that reliability for instance in Poland is about reliability as an ally — when it comes to providing arms: Is Germany supporting the Polish line of delivering a lot of arms to Ukraine?" said Weber. "Whereas in France and Spain, people might see (the question of Germany's reliability) more from an EU angle or an economic angle."

There was also a notable imbalance in the relationship between Germany and the US. As the US perception of Germany's reliability has declined, Germans' perception of the US as a partner has increased over the past year by some 14 percentage points, a bigger increase than in any other country.

A lot of that is probably down to the switch in the US administration at the start of 2021, and the sense that President Joe Biden is much more supportive of the transatlantic alliance with Germany than his predecessor, Donald Trump. But there is also evidence that the US' proactive support for Ukraine has increased America's standing among Germans — another country that has gained in Germany's perception is the UK, with an 11-point increase since last year.

"There's certainly strong support for the US as a leading actor on the world stage," said Bruce Stokes, visiting senior fellow at GMF. Historically, Germans have always seen the US' influence in the world as more positive than people in other countries have, specifically because of US support of Germany during the Cold War.

Biden's handling of international affairs has also seen positively received across Europe, especially in Poland and Lithuania, where over 70% of people approve of his actions. Some 64% of Germans also approve of Biden's handling of world affairs. At the same time, however, fewer people see the US as having a positive influence on global affairs: 53% of Germans.

There is also growing concern in Germany, as there has been in other partner countries, about the US' role in the future. People on both sides of the Atlantic expect America's influence to decline in the next five years, "with 37% expecting the country to be the most influential then, compared to 64% now," as the survey said.

"I would say almost every European I talk to, at some point in the conversation, will ask: 'Is Trump coming back?'" said Stokes. "There's widespread concern about the US political system and what it will produce."

Support for Ukraine strong among people

Meanwhile, Germany continues to be seen as the most influential country in Europe by some distance (an average of 75% among the 14 countries surveyed, compared to 65% for France and 55% for Britain). As Gesine Weber pointed out, this underlines what German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said in a recent speech: That Germany is often seen as a European leader "by default," because of its economic weight and voting power in the EU.

That has of course come with greater expectations, as could be seen by the international pressure to see Germany send more weapons to Ukraine. "Overall, when it comes to this delivery of tanks, I think this interest comes from the fact that Germany was so hesitant in the beginning," said Weber. That was followed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz's famous "turning of the times" speech in late February, which created heightened expectations.

"I would say that the government was not so good with communication," said Weber. "This gave a space to the media and commentators to say, 'ok Germany is not doing enough.'" Indeed, the survey found that some 59% of Germans support increasing military supplies to Ukraine, though that is below the average across the 14 countries, which is 66%.

And yet, at the same time, Germans are, of all the countries surveyed, the least enthusiastic about sending NATO troops to Ukraine: Only 28% would support such a move.

Edited by: Rob Mudge

While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.