Germany: Thuringia and Saxony elections propel far-right AfD

Voters in Germany's federal states of Thuringia and Saxony came out in numbers on Sunday, putting the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on top, while strongly going against the parties that currently make up Germany's federal coalition government.

Projections by German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, based on exit polls and partial counting, showed AfD coming first in Thuringia with a vote share between 32.8% and 33.4%. 

The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is forecast to come second with 23.8%.

The result marks the first time a far-right party finishes first in a state election in Germany since World War II.

The AfD leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, celebrated his party's projected lead as a "historic victory."

"We are ready to take government responsibility," Höcke said.

But so far, no party has said they would be willing to be in a coalition with the AfD, making it hard for them to form a government.

The CDU's national general secretary, Carsten Linnemann, said that "voters in both states knew that we wouldn't form a coalition with the AfD, and it will stay that way." 

"We are very, very clear on this," he added.

The two eastern states were once part of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and though they are relatively small, accounting for some 7% of Germany's population, they remain a sign of the rising popularity of the AfD. 

But the AfD branches in both Saxony and Thuringia have come under official surveillance as "proven right-wing extremist" groups. Höcke himself has been convicted of using a Nazi slogan at political events, although he has appealed the ruling.

The winners and losers in Thuringia and Saxony

The CDU held a razor-thin lead in Saxony, with a projected vote share of between 31.5% and 31.8%, while the AfD is projected to land between 30.8% and 31.4%.

Incumbent state premier, the CDU's Michael Kretschmer, said that regardless of the result, his party plans to lead coalition talks.

The biggest losers in Thuringia were the Greens and the FDP who both fell short of the 5% threshold and will have to leave parliament. But the election was also a major setback for the Left Party and state premier Bodo Ramelow, who saw their vote share shrink from 31% in the last election to a projected 12.9%.

In Saxony, the Left Party suffered a major defeat by falling short of the 5% threshold, having had 10% of the vote share in the last election. The Greens managed to hold on with 5.2%, but they also saw a decrease in their share.

How the German government reacted to the state elections

"To be honest, my pain tonight is marginal compared to the fact that we have a profound turning point and an openly far-right party has become the strongest force in a state parliament for the first time since 1949," the co-leader of Germany's Greens, Omid Nouripour, said.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left SPD also saw losses in both states, projected to have a vote share of 6% in Thuringia and 7% in Saxony.

Scholz's federal coalition, composed of the SPD, the FDP and the Greens, all saw major losses in both states, which has opened the grouping up to criticism from its main opposition in the Bundestag.

CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann told public broadcaster ZDF that the results were a "slap in the face" for the three parties, and said the coalition "must ask themselves, how they can stop their disastrous policies."

Changes on the left

The results in Saxony and Thuringia reflect the growing fragmentation of Germany's political landscape and in particular, the rise of anti-establishment parties.

The Left Party's losses could be attributed in large part to its former leader, Sahra Wagenknecht, forming her own party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), earlier this year.

Her new party combines anti-immigrant stances with left-wing economic policies and is also critical of German support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

BSW is expected to come in third in both Thuringia and Saxony, behind the AfD and the CDU, but making it a possible kingmaker in potential coalitions that seek to exclude the AfD.

"We very much hope that we can eventually get a good government with the CDU — probably also with the [center-left] SPD," Wagenknecht told Germany's state broadcaster ARD.

jcg/jsi (AP, dpa, Reuters, AFP)