Germany's coalition collapse: Merz's CDU ready to take power

After the end of the three-way center-left coalition government, one is thing is perhaps true for the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) — they are battle-ready for a general election.

CDU party leader Friedrich Merz is pushing for the election to be held as soon as possible.

The CDU adopted a new manifesto in May 2024 after several years of consultations at a regional level. Merz, who has been driving the debate since climbing to the top of the party in January 2022, described the 70-page manifesto titled "Living in freedom: Leading Germany Safely into the Future" as a "self-affirmation" for the party. 

"We need to know who we are, where we stand and what we want," he said at the launch.

CDU veers further to the right

Under Merz, the CDU has sought to distance itself from many of the policies of former chancellor and CDU leader Angela Merkel. On immigration, for example, where it has become much more restrictive and plans to outsource asylum procedures to safe third countries. Compulsory military service is also back on the agenda.

Merz has also become much more combative. He has raised concerns about what he described as the "irresponsible" actions of Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and openly mocked the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) and its voters ("as far as there are still any") and the ambitions of Green Party frontman Robert Habeck for the chancellorship ("it is quite amusing").

One thing is clear: the government statement by Scholz in parliament scheduled for November 13 will be an election campaign kickoff, whenever the election is held. The CDU/CSU, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) have already decided on their candidates. The Greens will decide who runs in late November; the SPD, FDP and Left Party (Die Linke) are all a ways off from making a decision.

Uneasy coalitions 

So is everything rosy for the CDU/CSU? Not quite. Firstly, the course taken by the CSU leader, Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder, with his radical, almost rage-filled rejection of any cooperation with the Greens, has been making life difficult for CDU state premiers who are currently members of state-level coalition governments with the environmentalists. Although CDU politicians are reluctant to comment on the issue, Söder will do his best to continue to be heard in Berlin and by his sister-party colleagues.

It will also be interesting to see how CDU party leaders in the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia, where new state parliaments were elected in September, navigate alliances within the multi-party system. The CDU federal leadership refuses to cooperate with the far-right AfD, a party that secured just over 30% of the vote in Saxony and Thuringia. The chances of forming a coalition with members of the BSW are also slim: the left-wing populist party this week walked out of exploratory coalition talks with the CDU and SPD in Saxony over the issue of support for Ukraine. The pro-Russia BSW wants to put a stop to all military aid for Ukraine.

At the beginning of November, in Germany's soccer Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund played against Leipzig at the Dortmund stadium where Merz and Saxony's CDU leader Michael Kretschmer watched from the stands. Merz, who was born and raised in a small town close to Dortmund in western Germany, wore the yellow and black scarf of Dortmund supporters, while Kretschmer wore the red and white of Leipzig.

A few days later, Kretschmer met with the leader of the AfD parliamentary group in Saxony's state parliament. It's unclear whether Kretschmer had spoken to Merz about the AfD meeting in advance. Neither has commented publicly on the matter.

This article was originally written in German.

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