Greece divided on Syriza

Early elections were called in Greece for Jan. 25 after parliament failed to elect a new president. The leftist alliance party, Syriza, is leading in polls. The country's business sector has been discussing the possible consequences of a Syriza win.

No one can say with confidence what role Greece would play in Europe if Syriza wins, but that doesn't mean no one has opinions on the matter.

To panic or not to panic

Seventy-year-old businessman Giorgos Tsakmakis owns a wholesale paint supply business in Thessaloniki. The political theater presented daily to Greeks in the media makes him laugh.

Media outlets with close connections to the governing conservative parties are doing their best to scare voters. They suggest that if Tsakmakis fails to vote for the conservatives, his children will go hungry, his pension won't be paid next month and the EU will cut off Greece's financing.

Independent media present a very different picture. There, Tsakmakis is told that Greece is no longer seen as a powder-keg whose sovereign debt default could blow up the eurozone. Behind the scenes, the leading EU countries are quietly getting ready to renegotiate Greece's debt repayment terms.

Moreover, many people in Germany are aware that Greece cannot carry on with the extreme austerity program imposed on it by the troika, made up of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission. The country's economy is being strangled and no matter how severe the cutbacks to social programs, new investors are not flocking to the country. Austerity is making the investment climate worse, not better.

"We don't know whom to believe anymore," says Tsakmakis. "But we do know that we're not going to let the government fool us with lies and fairy tales like the last time around."

The catastrophe has already happened

A good many businessmen are thinking along similar lines as Tsakmakis going into this election. A recurrent theme that comes up in conversation is that the future can only get better. Many, like Tsakmakis, come from conservative families and were long-time supporters of Antonis Samaras's conservative Nea Dimokratia party.

But now, Tsakmakis supports Syriza, the new leftist alliance, because it isn't part of Greece's old patronage system and has not been tainted by corruption like Nea Dimokratia and its coalition partner, the traditional centre-left Pasok party.

This election, Tsakmakis' children, his employees and many of his clients are planning to vote for Syriza too - and so, they hope, for their country's renewal.

Tsakmakis is tired of hearing reports from the government claiming the economy is on the mend. He thinks they're bogus. His business is on the front lines of the economy; he sees his sales figures, revenues and expenses daily.

"No-one can live on what we're bringing in," he says. For Tsakmakis, these elections are an opportunity to start afresh, and he doesn't care whether the restart happens inside or outside the Eurozone - the main thing is, Greece has to push the reset button. He believes the rest of Europe, including Germany, recognizes this.

Hoping for a soft landing

Manolis Blachojiannis is an economist in Thessaloniki's Chamber of Industry and Commerce, with his own business in the town's center.

Blachojiannis is apprehensive about his country's coming change in political and economic direction. He knows that many of his Chamber colleagues are looking forward to the shift, and so he emphasizes that the views he expresses in our interview are his own, not the Chamber's.

Blachojiannis believes Greece's exit from the European Union, sooner or later, is unavoidable. He hopes for a soft landing, but his view of how Europe's internal affairs will develop is pessimistic.

Greece, he says, will drop out of the Eurozone, even though most of Europe opposes that, out of fear that a domino effect might ensue, causing the currency union to fall apart.

Greece will have to leave the eurozone anyway, he thinks; the situation has its own dynamics and is not controllable. He thinks it's possible Syriza may be able to negotiate a workable new deal on debt relief and investment with the EU. However, he worries the negotiations will make the negotiating partners and therefore the Eurozone lose credibility.

In 2015, Greece will once again make history - as Europe finally is forced to confront the country's economic and social disaster and its unrepayable debt burden.