Fear for German hostages

Germany is keeping quiet about any efforts to secure the release of two nationals (seen above in a video make by the kidnappers) taken hostage while sailing in the western Philippines in April. The government in Berlin as well as authorities in Manila have thus far refused to agree to the demands of the abductors.

"We do not negotiate with terrorists," Defense Minister Voltaire Gazmin said in a radio interview on Wednesday.

The Islamic terrorist group Abu Sayyaf has demanded Germany withdraw from the US-led coalition against Islamic State militants, and pay 250 million pesos ($5.62 million, 4.3 million euros) in ransom by October 10. Failure to do so, it published on its Facebook page, would result in the decapitation of the hostages. The group also published several photos and a video of the two, a man and a woman, surrounded by their hostage-takers, one of whom threateningly wielded a machete above their heads.

Berlin-based Asia expert Felix Heiduk said he is not convinced that they will actually carry through on their threats, and said the Philippine police believe what the kidnappers really want is money. That said, Abu Sayyaf terrorists have been known to act with such brutality in the past. In May 2010, they beheaded seven Christians on the island of Jolo. The six road construction workers, and one fisherman had been trying to earn money to finance their studies.

Unclear aims and structure

Abu Sayyaf is fighting for separation from the largely Catholic country, and the creation of an Islamic state in the southern Philippines. In April 2000, the group kidnapped foreign holiday makers, including a German family. Libya's then head of state Moammar Gadhafi intervened to help secure their release.

Over the past decade, the terrorist organization has largely made a name for itself through criminal activities, and any ideological motives or symbolic targets have faded into the background. And that, Heiduk said, means nobody really knows who is in charge.

"The founding generation has been arrested or eliminated," he told DW, adding that the fact that they pledge allegiance with IS does not necessarily mean the two groups have close ties.

Fickle followers

That is a view shared by the Philippine President Benigno Aquino, who was in Berlin on an official visit last week. In an interview with Germany's daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he said Abu Sayyaf previously claimed links with al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiah.

"If a new group is founded next month, they will want to be part of that. Their actions, particularly the kidnapping of tourists, has little to do with fundamentalism," he said. "We expect the peace agreement will gradually remove support for groups like Abu Sayyaf, because they will lose their safe haven."

He was referring to the March deal he struck with the Islamic rebel movement "Moro Islamic Liberation Front" (MILF). It makes provision for the creation of an autonomous region on the resource rich southern island of Mindanao.

Path to peace

Two weeks ago, Aquino presented Congress with a 122-page document, drafting laws for the autonomous region that would comprise just over ten percent of the island territory. Under the terms of the agreement, the local leadership would have access to raw materials, its own police force and tax system.

The law is to be passed by spring 2015, although opponents have already announced their intention to take it to the high court in order to assess its constitutionality.

Heiduk said he doubts that threats from Abu Sayyaf will jeopardize the peace deal, which is in part the result of conflict fatigue. He said the kidnappers could not hope to reach any military goals in beheading their hostages, but he stressed that terrorism is a communication strategy.

"It is a matter of spreading terror and fear," he said. "Perhaps in demonstrating solidarity with IS, the kidnappers want to reassert themselves."