Political turbulence

After defying tear gas and riot police in overnight clashes, thousands of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong (HK) continued their protests on Monday, September 29, bringing parts of the city to a standstill. Thousands of people refused to budge from at least three major thoroughfares, even after riot police withdrew from the scene of unrest which is viewed by many as the worst since China retook control of the former British colony in 1997.

Attempting to control the crowds, HK police had used pepper spray and fired tear gas the night before – for the first time in the autonomous region since 2005 - after tense week-long demonstrations , led mainly by students, turned into agry street protests.

The escalation follows the August 31 announcement by Chinese authorities that they will tightly control the nomination of candidates for the election of the city's Chief Executive in 2017. China's top legislative committee decided that the city's next leader would be elected by popular vote, but only after each candidate is approved by a majority of a 1,200-member election committee.

For years, political and electoral reforms have been sources of friction between Beijing and Hong Kongers, but tensions have mounted over the past months as the financial hub has become the setting for a series of protests by pro-Beijing and pro-democracy groups.

Sonny Lo, Head of the Department of Social Sciences at the Hong Kong Institute of Education, says in a DW interview that in order to de-escalate the situation, the HK officials will need to engage with the protest leaders.

DW: Authorities used tear gas against the demonstrators, something which rarely happens in the semi-autonomous territory. Does this mark a turning point in the HK pro-democracy movement?

Sonny Lo: Definitely, the use of tear gas and pepper spray by the police to deal with the pro-democracy protesters is proof that the Hong Kong government has adopted a more hard-line position. This may trigger further demonstrations and confrontation in the coming days and weeks.

The political situation in Hong Kong has become quite volatile and unstable. I think this may even affect how international agencies rate Hong Kong's economic outlook at least in the short run. So, definitely, the use of force against pro-democracy intellectuals, students, and demonstrators on Sunday night was a sign that Hong Kong is now entering a period of political turbulence.

Are there any signs that the HK government is willing to engage with the protesters?

So far there hasn't been any signal from the government. The Hong Kong authorities have only sent police negotiators to engage with the protesters. Ultimately, the officials who are responsible for political reforms will need to have a direct dialogue with the protest leaders, otherwise the agitation will continue for weeks and months, and this will definitely undermine Hong Kong's economic prospects. Today, we saw that the stock market reacted negatively to the political chaos and deadlock.

How difficult is the situation becoming for the authorities to contain?

I think the protest organizers are adopting guerilla-style tactics as they are moving the demonstrators out of the central district to congested areas. To counter this, the police will have to deal with a more difficult situation which may escalate depending on how the authorities react. If the police try to use more force, any accident or mishandling of protesters would be disastrous. We hope that there won't be any casualties during the protests; otherwise this will spark an even larger civil disobedience movement in Hong Kong. This, in turn, could plunge the territory into a sustained period of political uncertainty and economic crisis.

What can be done to de-escalate the situation?

Hong Kong leaders should sit down and try to persuade the police to adopt a more restrained attitude. The government must also push forward a proposal for reforms as soon as possible and guarantee that the democratic candidates for the Chief Executive election won't be discriminated against.

They also need to have a dialogue with pro-democracy leaders, directly or indirectly though intermediaries. There are reports that at least one executive council member close to the Chief Executive demanded that the police commissioner explain to the council why he allowed the use of force on Sunday night. So it seems that there are some concerns among the government officials about what is happening in Hong Kong. But we have to see whether the voice of the officials who favor dialogue will become dominant.

Are there any indications that Beijing might intervene?

Beijing does not want to intervene. Its position is very clear: the Standing Committee's decision cannot be changed; it is the law and Hong Kong has to follow it.

Professor Sonny Lo is the Head and Professor of the Department of Social Sciences and Co-Director of Centre for Governance and Citizenship at the Hong Kong Institute of Education.