Critical phase

Time is running out for a deal to be reached at the United Nations climate talks in Durban, South Africa, despite all-night negotiations and an extra day.

Both the German and French environment ministers were pessimistic about the chances of key players agreeing to any sort of substantial action plan.

"We are now in an extremely critical situation because of time," said German Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen. "The delay is very critical. It is very doubtful whether we will succeed."

Röttgen and his French counterpart both blamed the slow pace of negotiations under the chairmanship of South Africa.

"We are in the worst situation, that of failure because of time management," French Environment Minister Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet said. "We are risking failure because of a lack of negotiations, a lack of confrontation," she added. "Last night, the conference [chair] did not even seem to take the problem of time into account."

The talks were scheduled to wrap up on Friday but were extended to Saturday.

Dozens of the world's poorest countries and small island states have joined the EU in backing a plan that would extend the Kyoto Protocol, while drawing the world's biggest emitters - including China, the United States and India - into binding emission cuts by 2020. The Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

The grouping encompasses a clear majority of nations present at the talks.

Major polluters dig in their heels

The world's biggest emitters, China and the United States, however, are among those most resistant to the proposal.

"Only a very few countries stand in the way of agreement here," Röttgen told reporters. "These are the main emitters, as has been the case throughout the week - the US, China, India."

The US has long argued that it will not enter into binding cuts to its emissions unless similar rules are applied to the world's large developing countries.

Brazil and South Africa appear open to the compromise in what has been called the BASIC group of large emerging economies, which also includes India and China.

The latter have traditionally argued that the developed world carries a larger burden for tackling the problem.

In recent days China's position has become more ambiguous.

It has indicated that it does not wish to stand in the way of a legally binding treaty. However, it is unclear whether it would be prepared to include itself in binding commitments in such a treaty, especially before 2020.

India appears to be the biggest obstacle among large emerging economies.

The country of 1.2 billion people has annual carbon emissions of fewer than two tones per capita - compared to around 20 tons for the United States - and says it is unfair to expect its people to shoulder the burden of tackling climate change amid pressing needs to escape poverty.

"[Indians] continue to struggle with the challenge of eking out their livelihoods, meeting their basic needs, and cannot be expected to be legally bound to reduce their emissions when they make no emissions at all," said Indian Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan.

India says it cannot imagine a new treaty before 2020.

EU wants a deal by 2015

The European Union doesn't want to wait that long. The bloc's climate chief, Connie Hedegaard, said she wants to see the world reach an agreement by 2015.

"Four years to do what should be done is not an unfair deadline," Hedegaard said.

Röttgen added that the pace of progress was far too slow.

"It's inacceptable that a year-long phase of negotiations is used to secure a pause in actions," he said. "Negotiations and actions have to occur in tandem."

No deal better than bad deal?

Even if negotiators manage to reach a compromise deal, there may not be much to celebrate, according to Kate Horner of the environmental protection group Friends of the Earth said.

"There is a very serious danger that we will be locked into a process that delays actions for five to 10 years and possibly delivers a weaker system than the present one," she said.

Evidence in a string of scientific studies leading up to and into the conference suggests time is running out for countries to get a handle on global warming.

At the outset of the conference, the World Meteorological Organization said levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere "are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2 to 2.4 degree Centigrade rise in average global temperatures, which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans."   

Limiting climate change to a rise of two degrees Celsius is viewed as crucial to avoid dangerous tipping points that would lead to runaway warming.

"Failure is a possibility in Durban," said Greenpeace's Kaiser. "That would be preferable to some kind of lazy compromise that's sold to the public as proof of progress."

Author: Johannes Beck / nw (AFP, dpa)
Editor: Sean Sinico