How prepared is Taiwan for a potential Chinese attack?

Taiwan's air defense capabilities have come into focus in recent weeks, after the Washington Post reported that Taiwan would struggle to handle aerial offensive operations from China, citing classified documents leaked by a 21-year-old American man who was a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

The report, which was published in April, claimed that Taiwanese officials doubt their air defense can "accurately detect missile launches" from China and that not enough of Taiwan's military aircraft are "fully mission capable." The report also highlighted that Taiwan's fighter jets could become targets of Chinese missile attacks as it requires at least "a week" to move them to shelters.

Taiwan's Defense Ministry described details in the US newspaper's report as "untrue" and emphasized that Taiwan had made "appropriate modifications on combat plans" while continuing to bolster its military preparedness. Some analysts agree that the leaked documents underestimate Taiwan's "robust" missile defense capabilities.

"Taiwan's long-range early warning radar and space warning can detect missile launches within seconds, and it also has a very impressive command and control system," said Tony Hu, a former senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the US Department of Defense.

Can Taiwan counter China's large number of military aircraft?

Despite some pushbacks against the characterization of Taiwan's air defense capabilities in the leaked documents, there are still some doubts about the island's overall air defense capabilities. One of the sources of concern is the huge disparity between China and Taiwan's air power.

According to Global Firepower — which ranks nations' military capabilities — China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has more than 3,000 military aircraft and close to 400,000 personnel in its air force while Taiwan has just over 700 military aircraft and more than 30,000 soldiers in its air force.

But some experts told DW that while China's superiority in air power can overwhelm some areas of Taiwan's air defense, the island can neutralize the huge disparity with anti-aircraft missiles. "In the Ukrainian war, even though there is a huge difference in the number of military aircraft between the Ukrainian and Russian air forces, Ukraine could use short-range stinger missiles to gain some air defense capabilities," Tzu-Yun Su, an analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) in Taiwan, told DW.

Since Taiwan has long-range, medium-range, and short-range air defense missiles, Su thinks it can help form a certain degree of the island's air defense capabilities. "Even though they only have short-range missiles, Ukraine has done a good job in air defense, and since Taiwan has a wider range of air defense missiles, it can do better in terms of air defense," he said.

According to data released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in 2021, a Washington-based think tank, Taiwan's missile program is primarily made up of six types of missiles of different ranges — Tien Chi, Hsiung Feng II, Hsiung Feng III, Wan Chien, Hsiung Feng IIE and Yun Feng.

There are also Tien Kung missiles, which are surface-to-air anti-ballistic missiles developed by Taiwan.

While Taiwan has historically limited its missile forces to defensive assets, CSIS indicated the island has started to develop missiles designed for strike missions.

Taiwan hopes for US support

Even though Taiwan can counter China's superiority in air power with investment in air defense missiles, some research shows the PLA's efforts to modernize its air force are gaining momentum. In a blog post published in February, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said data from the Military Balance, the institute's annual assessment of military capabilities of 173 countries, shows that the PLA is adding combat aircraft at pace.

According to IISS, the PLAAF now has more than 600 aircraft across 19 front-line combat brigades, and the annual production rate of combat aircraft, like the "low-observable" Chengdu J-20, has doubled over the last three years.

Former Pentagon official Hu told DW that Beijing has achieved success in producing new types of combat aircraft, including the J-35 stealth fighter jet. This shows a "significant growth in China's ability and it's a concern," he said.

However, Hu added that China's progress in producing large numbers of combat aircraft may not be enough to "turn the tide of defending Taiwan," as the island also has aircraft and other systems provided by the US that can help support Taiwan's combat capability. As part of the efforts to strengthen support for Taiwan's air defense capabilities, the island's defense ministry signed on April 21 two deals worth around US $420 million (€386 million) for parts and aviation materials that can be used to maintain Taiwan's fighter jets.

Additionally, one of Taiwan's defense contractors, Aerospace Industrial Development Corp (AIDC), said earlier this month that the island was seeking support from the US to manufacture the next domestically developed fighter jet. "When it comes to the development of the next-generation fighter, we hope the United States supports Taiwan to develop it itself, including the engine, avionics, control systems, environmental controls, and so on, which are all an opportunity for Taiwan-US cooperation," said Kai-Hung Hu, the chairman of AIDC.

Intimidation

While experts like Hu and Su both think Taiwan's air defense capabilities can withstand China's aerial attack to a certain extent, they also express concern about China's ongoing gray zone activities around Taiwan, which include the incursion of Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) by China's military aircraft as well as the growing frequency of China's blockade style military exercises around Taiwan.

Since April of 2023, China has increased the frequency of its gray zone operations around Taiwan, including a three-day blockade-style military exercise around Taiwan as a response to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last month.

Additionally, the PLA has tested new gray zone tactics by deploying combat drones to circle Taiwan twice over the last week, raising concerns that China may be testing new capabilities to intimidate the island. "Beijing is demonstrating that the drones have become part of their gray zone operations around Taiwan," said Crystal Chen-Yi Tu, an assistant research fellow at INDSR in Taiwan.

Former Pentagon official Hu warned that the main objective of China's gray zone operations around Taiwan was to instigate a "defeatist attitude" among Taiwanese people while affecting the island's air defense readiness and capabilities. "The war is on right now because China's number one objective is to keep the pressure on to scare Taiwanese people," he told DW.

Hu adds that instead of letting Taiwanese pilots fly new military aircraft to intercept Chinese aircraft, which could disrupt their usual training and increase the efforts to maintain the aircraft, Taiwanese authorities should try to "play their own game." 

"Taiwan should consider using the soon-to-be-retired military aircraft to conduct these intercepts and use retired pilots to conduct these missions," he said.

In order to be better prepared for the growing risks of a potential cross-Strait conflict, Hu thinks Taiwan should establish a rule of engagement for China's gray zone operations while ensuring there is enough war reserve stock. "It's critically important to ensure the stockpile of necessary materials is in place in Taiwan," he told DW.

Edited by: John Silk