How Trump's win boosts Poland's right-wing opposition

The Independence March in Warsaw, which has been held annually on Poland's Independence Day since 2010, is a major event in the Polish right-wing nationalist calendar.

This year was no different: On Monday, tens of thousands of Poles marched through Warsaw, marking the restoration of the Polish state on November 11, 1918, after 123 years of foreign rule.

The march began with prayers, and, like every year, there was a sea of red-and-white Polish flags and huge clouds of smoke from burning torches, flares and fireworks.

There were also plenty of banners: many critical of the EU, many denouncing abortion and one proclaiming, "We are the power behind Greater Poland."

Warsaw authorities said that 90,000 people participated in the march, which snaked through the center of the capital to the National Stadium.

PiS joins the march

The national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, which has been in opposition since losing last fall's election, did not participate in the march in recent years because it considered the event's extreme right-wing organizers too radical.

This year, Kaczynski and his closest allies marched shoulder-to-shoulder with the nationalists.

"We want the patriotic camp to be united. We want the patriotic camp to walk together in this march and other political undertakings," said Kaczynski.

The Polish daily newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza saw another motivation in PiS's involvement, writing, "Because of the upcoming presidential election (in May 2025), Kaczynski seeks solidarity with the right wing."

Kaczynski resurrects his anti-German rhetoric

On the eve of the march, Kaczynski repeated his criticism of Donald Tusk's center-left coalition government, which has ruled the country since December 2023.

"For a year now, our state and our economy is being destroyed. The plan of a foreign state, Germany, is being implemented, but the influence of Putin, too, is becoming more apparent," he said.

For years, anti-German rhetoric has been a standard feature of his party's speeches and campaigns.

Polish right overjoyed at Trump US election win

After being ousted from government in parliamentary elections last fall, PiS went through a crisis.

Rifts emerged in the party, such as differences between former PM Mateusz Morawiecki and the "hawks" allied with former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro.

Some party members even dared to criticize Kaczynski for the party's electoral loss.

But since Donald Trump's victory in last week's US presidential election, the previously deflated PiS has been buoyed by new hope.

When it became clear last Wednesday that Trump had been reelected, the euphoria in Poland's national-conservative ranks was unbridled.

Lawmakers from PiS and the extreme-right Confederation party stood up in parliament, clapped and chanted "Donald Trump, Donald Trump" for several minutes. Some even posted photos of themselves on social media wearing the red "Make America Great Again" baseball caps that are so popular among Trump supporters.

Polish government openly critical of Trump

Mariusz Blaszczak, the PiS party's parliamentary head, called on Tusk's government to resign for backing Kamala Harris and offending Trump.

Prime Minister Tusk and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski have been very critical of Trump in the past.

"If Trump had won the last election (2020), there would be no NATO today, something he himself declared. His dependence on Russian secret services is beyond doubt," Tusk said during the election campaign.

Polish opposition hopes for Trump's support

Dominik Tarczynski, a member of the European Parliament for PiS, attended several Trump campaign events and was open in his support for the US president-elect. Tarczynski has boasted about forwarding information about anti-Trump statements made by Polish ministers to Trump's team.

PiS is banking on support from the incoming US administration in its opposition to Tusk's government.

There are also close ties between PiS and Trump's running mate, Vice President-elect JD Vance, who supported PiS in its fight with Tusk's government about public media in Poland in early 2024.

Trump's victory has "put an end to the disruption within PiS and this party's fight for survival," says political scientist Rafal Chwedoruk.

Polish president happy about Trump's reelection

Poland's President Andrzej Duda stands to benefit most from Trump's return to the White House.

Duda, who was a PiS ally before becoming president, has long been a close ally of Trump. During Trump's first term in office from 2016 to 2020, Duda openly sought the American president's favor. During Trump's visit to Warsaw in July 2017, he bolstered Poland's role in Europe.

Duda was slow to congratulate Joe Biden when he won the US presidential election in 2020, which caused a deep rift in Polish-American relations. It was only with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years later that the ice between the Biden administration and the PiS government began to thaw.

Duda ready to fly to Washington

Duda and Trump spoke on Monday, with the US president-elect sending well-wishes on Poland's Independence Day and thanking Polish Americans for their support in the election.

Duda has said that he intends to visit Washington before Trump's inauguration on January 20.

In his Independence Day address, Duda praised America's significance for restoring the Polish state 106 years ago and Poland's security in Europe today. "It is a pipe dream — as some people think — that Europe can ensure its own security today," he said.

Who will be the next Polish president?

Given that a new Polish president will be elected next May, Duda will not have much time to deepen ties with Trump.

The presidential election is seen as the most important political event in Poland in the coming years.

Duda is using his veto to block almost all of the left-wing liberal government's plans. A victory for Tusk's candidate is, therefore, key to ensuring his government's ability to act.

There are, at present, two potential candidates within the Civic Coalition (KO) led by Donald Tusk: Mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski, who is currently seen as the favorite, and Foreign Minister Sikorski, who unexpectedly threw his hat into the ring recently. The coalition's presidential candidate will be chosen in a primary election on November 23.

PiS has also yet to select its candidate and is expected to do so before the month is out.

One potential candidate is former Education Minister Przemyslaw Czarnek, who has close ties to the Catholic Church and is highly critical of Germany. During his time in office, he cut German lessons in school for children of the country's German minority from three hours to one hour a week.

This article was originally published in German.