India election: Why are opposition members defecting to BJP?

Bipin Das* says he worked for the Indian National Congress party (INC) for over two decades before switching to the ruling right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) two months ago.

He told DW that, following a recent redrawing of constituency boundaries in the northeast state of Assam, he was left with no choice.

"The Congress is never going to come to power here, we are 100% sure," Das said.

The centrist and secular INC, often known simply as the Congress, is the primary opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP. But with the  general election starting on Friday, the party is facing a murky future and struggling with a crisis of confidence in its leader Rahul Gandhi.

Das and many other ex-INC members now believe they are better off with the BJP, the Hindu nationalist party of Prime Minister Modi. Last week, 800 Congress members in the western coastal state Gujarat changed allegiance to the BJP.

Why are Congress members leaving?

The party's issues go beyond the grassroots level. Defectors include senior INC members such as Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, the former member of parliament Naveen Jindal, the former chief minister of Maharashtra Ashok Chavan, and Assam's Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Those who have left cite many reasons for their change of heart. For some, it was the appeal of Modi as a charismatic leader, which puts him in stark contrast with Congress leadership.

"When people listen to Rahul Gandhi, they remember his words for the next 10 minutes," Das told DW. "But the way Modi influences people's minds, the listeners go on to preach on his behalf."

For others, it was reading the writing on the wall.

"Many Congress men feel that they may not come to power for a long time," said journalist and political commentator Neerja Chowdhury.

Experts say it could take the Congress years to refill their ranks and regain relevance, putting members' personal ambitions on hold in the opposition camp, while greener pastures lie just across the political divide. 

New era of 'no ideology'

An ideological factor, or rather the lack thereof, is also influencing party members to change colors. Chowdhury notes that some politicians are known to switch sides ahead of elections.

"But of late we're seeing a slightly different phenomenon in addition to this, and that is politics becoming de-ideologized," she said.

Without an ideology, politicians are able to change alliances more freely.

A recent example includes Gourav Vallabh, a former Congress spokesperson who joined the BJP. Addressing the media, he said he could not stand for criticism or negative rhetoric towards Hindu traditions — a somewhat surprising stance after Vallabh had spent years attacking the BJP's core ideas, which are centered around just that.

"Nowadays, there is no ideology," said Omair Khan, the national coordinator of the Congress' minority department.

Gandhi wearing out his welcome

Chowdhury also believed the current state of the Congress was a result of its own actions. Rather than innovating or seeking new strategies, the party persisted in its traditional approach, consistently relying on the Gandhi family for leadership.

The party could have projected Mallikarjun Kharge, the Congress president, as the new face of the Indian opposition, according to Chowdhury. Kharge is a Dalit, a member of the lowest caste in traditional Hindu social hierarchy. India "has never had a Dalit Prime Minister," Chowdhury said. Promoting Kharge could tilt Dalits' votes in favor of Congress.

Instead, the party still focuses on Rahul Gandhi — the great-grandson of India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, the grandson of the nation's first female Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, and son of another former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

Rahul Gandhi leading the Congress "suits the BJP to the hilt," said Chowdhury, as Gandhi "may be saying the right thing (…) but he is not seen as a counter to Modi at the bigger level."

Another mistake the Congress made, according to the political commentator, was not carving out a bigger role for its young leaders. Now those young leaders have moved on to join the BJP, with those such as Scindia taking on roles in Modi's cabinet.

"And I'm not saying the Gandhi family should not play a role [in the Congress]. But it has to go beyond the Gandhi family being at the center of it," Chowdhury added.

She said the party finds itself on the back foot because it is "not able to get their act together" to "counter either the narrative of the BJP, or the personality of Narendra Modi, or the humongous machinery that the BJP has become."

State pressure to join BJP

Experts also claim the BJP is pressuring the opposition through state bodies. India's Enforcement Directorate, Income Tax Department, and the Central Bureau of Investigation have all been used to target opposition leaders, they say.

Such issues often go away if the targeted individuals decide to join the ruling party. An investigation by Mumbai-based daily The Indian Express highlighted that, since 2014, 23 out of 25 notable opposition politicians have seen investigations against them either closed or put on hold after joining the BJP. Additionally, an earlier report by the same newspaper revealed that 95% of individuals scrutinized by law enforcement agencies belonged to opposition parties.

"No statutory bodies or investigative agencies have ever been truly independent, but in recent years the boundaries have been completely blurred to serve the party interests of the ruling regime," a Bangalore-based political anthropologist said. "Hence, defections or desertions from one party to the BJP are even more common. It has been incentivized to join the BJP to get a 'clean sheet' from all corruption or other criminal charges."

No response from INC

It would appear that the Congress does not know how to discourage members from leaving in droves. "If the Congress knew what to do, it would be doing it," said Chowdhury.

At the same time, she sid it was crucial for the Congress  to act as a counterweight to the ruling party, thereby upholding one of the most basic principles of a democracy — maintaining checks and balances.

"For the Congress to lose, to slump, to not be able to revive is not a good thing for India's democracy," she said.

*Name changed upon request.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic