G8 summit
June 24, 2010
Before the G20 meets in Toronto to discuss the global financial crisis, economic recovery and financial reforms, G8 leaders will meet in Muskoka on Friday to tackle pressing security issues such as nuclear non-proliferation, vulnerable and fragile states and international terrorism.
Nuclear non-proliferation, in particular, is likely to top the G8 agenda with the on-going Iran crisis the most prominent topic within that discussion.
Experts divided on G8's influence over Iran situation
However, Professor Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, believes there will be little more than a reiteration of the United Nations' stance at the G8 summit.
"I personally don't think that the G8 will say anything new on Iran," Prof. Perthes told Deutsche Welle. "They will basically repeat what the last UN Security Council resolution said: that sanctions are to bring Iran to the table, asking Iran to cooperate, making clear that the international community is still prepared to talk with Iran, and that they would appreciate it if Turkey and Brazil also continue their diplomatic efforts."
Anthony Seaboyer, a nuclear security expert with the German Council for Foreign Relations, disagrees. He believes the G8 meeting provides an opportunity for the international community to apply further pressure on Iran.
"The G8 can speak with one voice to Iran and demand cooperation," Seaboyer told Deutsche Welle. "And it can condemn the barring of the two IAEA officials from Iran this week, as well as the new 'research' reactor Iran has announced that will have four times the production capability of the current research reactor."
Seaboyer said G8 members should go unilaterally beyond the current UN sanctions.
"They can show unity on the issue speaking clear words with one voice," he said. "That would be a success and would show Iran that they cannot split the international community. Ideally we will see more countries coming up with bilateral sanctions that go further than the UN sanctions."
The non-proliferation discussions are likely to provide crossover with talks on international terrorism given the recent Nuclear Security Summit in Washington where the worrying prospect of terrorists getting hold of fissile material topped the agenda.
Nuclear terrorism on the agenda
It is accepted knowledge that some terrorist organizations are pursuing the materials needed to build a nuclear weapon and have the intent to use one. So the G8 is expected to concentrate on efforts to curb money-laundering by terrorist organizations and promote deeper international cooperation on investigations intended to prevent nuclear technology and material changing hands through criminal networks.
An extension to the Global Partnership against Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction is also likely, a program which committed $20 billion (16.1 billion euros) over 10 years to secure nuclear weapons and fissile materials in the former Soviet Union at the Kananaskis summit in 2002. G8 leaders are expected to extend the partnership program with a further commitment of $10 billion.
"The G8 can also try to find new initiatives and overcome the difficulties in implementation that are obvious in the existing initiatives for stopping nuclear terrorism," said Seaboyer.
Read more on the G8 and its agenda
North Korea's name crops up time and again
Given that North Korea has recently been exposed as a major proliferator of nuclear technology and material to countries such as Iran, Syria and Burma - as well as being considered a threat in its own right as a nuclear-armed rogue state - it is likely that the G8 will also discuss Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions and the tense situation on the Korean peninsula.
While sanctions appear to be the international community's favored approach to Iran, the G8 powers are less clear on what to do with North Korea. It stands accused of sinking a South Korean navy vessel in March, an act which has taken the Korean peninsula to the brink of war.
"North Korea is likely to be part of the agenda of the summit because of the recent sinking of the South Korean naval ship," Simon Henderson, a North Korea expert at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy, told Deutsche Welle.
"But the summit participants will not want to interfere with the established delicate diplomacy which already includes three of the participants - the US, China and Japan," Henderson added.
However, Dr. Kongdan Oh, an Asia specialist at the Brookings Institute in Washington, believes that unified G8 action on North Korea could contribute to growing international pressure and force Pyongyang to take stock.
"If the G8 seriously discusses North Korea's proliferation activities not only concentrating on Pyongyang, but also North Korean aid to other potential nuclear candidates, the impact will not be light," she told Deutsche Welle.
"The G8 can have a moderate influence through serious and solid embargoes on bilateral trade between each G8 nation and North Korea," said Oh. This could involve global financial checks and water-tight surveillance on North Korea's illicit trading and money laundering.
"North Korea is a fiercely nationalistic country and it hates to be disliked and disrespected by established countries," she said. "They think the EU is different from the US. Therefore the solidarity between the EU and US within the G8 can have a powerful impact on North Korea."
G8 divided on best approach toward vulnerable states
North Korea's contacts with Iran, Syria and Burma will no doubt be mentioned in discussions on the world's vulnerable and fragile states - a term that experts have coined to refer to countries like Pakistan and Yemen which have a functioning national government, but also an entrenched terrorism problem with international reach.
The nuclear threat also raises its head when discussing Pakistan, given that the focus on proliferation has shifted from Russia and the former Soviet republics in recent years to Central Asia and Pakistan in particular. Pakistan's domestic Islamist terrorism and Taliban situation is a worrying development.
Yemen has recently risen in the list of states causing concern due to the alleged al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) links to the botched Christmas Day bombing of a US airliner in 2009. Increasing concern that the country has become a new hub for al Qaeda has led Canadian Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon to add Yemen to the G8 terrorism agenda.
The G8 is expected to struggle to find a unified approach to dealing with such states. While the United States supports a more interventionist policy, most of Europe's former colonial powers are wary of any involvement. The challenge will be to find an alternative to financial and political support for under-pressure governments while improving national and multilateral programs designed to assist fragile states.
Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Rob Mudge