Could Iraq's census further destabilize the country?

Later this week, all of Iraq will be under curfew for two days. Borders will be open but somewhere between 43 and 46 million ordinary Iraqis have been instructed not go to work or school this Wednesday and Thursday.

The curfew doesn't have anything to do with other conflicts ongoing in the Middle East. It's happening because for the first time in almost three decades, Iraq is undertaking a census, an accurate count of how many people live in Iraq, what they do and how they live.

Between 120,000 and 140,000 specially-trained census takers will be asking residents to answer over 70 questions. Replies will be recorded on tablets and preliminary data could be available within 24 hours, Iraqi authorities say, with all results ready within two months.

Politicians argue the planned census is essential for the country's economic development. However, others are worried about the political sensitivities, and even potential danger, such a head count might bring.

"The situation in Iraq is explosive overall," Adel Bakawan, director of the Paris-based French Research Centre on Iraq, explained. "Because none of the central issues among the different components of Iraqi society — Shiite Muslim, Sunni Muslim and Kurdish — have been resolved."

The country's Shiite Muslims, who make up a majority, see the census as a "national imperative," Bakawan continued. "But the Sunnis view it as a mechanism for Shia domination over the country. And the Kurds perceive the census as a weapon deployed by the central government against them."

Last census 27 years ago

Iraq's last census happened in 1997 under the dictator Saddam Hussein. However, since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq that toppled him, nobody has ever managed to hold another one. A census had been planned for 2007 but was postponed several times because of fears it might destabilize the country. During a 2009 attempt, several census-takers were killed by gunmen in Mosul.

There are a number of reasons why it's taken Iraq so long to undertake another head count. 

Since 2003, the country's political system has been based on a kind of quota system that guarantees the biggest demographic groups power. Iraq's prime minister is always a Shiite Muslim, the parliamentary speaker a Sunni Muslim and the president a Kurd. In this way, the most senior political posts are shared out.

The system was set up by US administrators after 2003 in order to ensure different groups would feel adequately represented and wouldn't fight for power. 

A census that provides a current, accurate snapshot of Iraq's communities could change that balance. It may well increase the number of seats in parliament. Iraq is supposed to have one member of parliament per 100,000 citizens and the population is now somewhere between 43 and 46 million.

"It's highly likely that the number of seats [in the federal parliament] will increase from 329 to around 450," Bakawan predicted. Many Iraqis tend to vote for politicians from within their own demographic. "So given that the birth rate among Kurds is 1.9 and among the Shia, it's 4.99, this means the Shia will assert their demographic dominance over the country even more strongly," the researcher suggested.

Iraq's Shiite Muslim parties currently dominate parliament anyway but any changes in the balance of power in federal parliament and on local councils could cause tensions between different communities.

'Ghost workers'

Another contentious aspect of Iraq's census involves the country's so-called "disputed territories."

These are parts of the country that Iraq's Kurds say belong to their semi-autonomous region in the north, but which the Iraqi government believes are part of federal Iraq. To work out who the areas belong to, Iraq's 2005 constitution says a census should be part of the solution, to see who exactly lives there. But a census might bring answers that neither Kurds nor Arabs like.

A further problematic factor involves Iraq's oil revenues, which in 2023 added up to around $8 billion (€7.6 billion) a month, on average. The revenues are meant to be divided equally between Iraq's different provinces with less-populated provinces getting fewer state funds. 

A census could also influence Iraq's long-running problem with so-called "ghost employees." There are allegedly 10s of thousands of people who hold several jobs at once, including with the Iraqi government, and who bribe bosses with a portion of their salary, so they can keep the job but not turn up.

Keeping clear of conflict

The Iraqi government has tried to circumvent some of these problems by removing questions about ethnicity and sect from the census.

That will make the census less dangerous said Joost Hiltermann, program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Crisis Group think tank. 

"Standard censuses around the world do not include this question [about ethnicity] as it tends to create politically volatile issues concerning the relative sizes of ethnic groups," he told DW. "The Iraqi government's decision to excise that question from the planned census renders it much less politically sensitive."  

And with regard to Kurdish concerns about "disputed territories" the federal government has agreed to use a 1957 census, taken before the Hussein dictatorship, as a baseline for the Kurdish population in places such as Kirkuk.  

Other Iraqis have criticized these moves as political decisions that will make the census less meaningful.

"These are not just numbers, they're demographic 'narratives,'" local political analyst Yahya al-Kubaisi argued in a May op-ed for the London-based media outlet Al-Quds Al-Arabi. "[They] have been transformed into data that produce policies. … these numbers are reflected in everything." 

That is why, these categories shouldn't be ignored, he stated.

Positive outcome

Crisis Group's Hiltermann, an expert on Iraq, believes the overall impact will be positive.

"[The census] provides vital information about Iraqi society as it has evolved, especially after such a long time lapse. It's vital for development," he said. "And there may or may not be corruption, but with accurate, up-to-date information you can at least launch a development strategy based on reality."

Additionally, he argued that the lack of data about the size of different ethnic groups was a good thing.

"In that way, it can help prevent violent conflict," he said. "Iraqis should be citizens first and foremost and be treated as such by government strategy. To divide the society into ethnic groups, as has happened in Lebanon and Iraq, only increases the risk of violent conflict."

Edited by: Anne Thomas