Is peace within reach 2 years after Tigray war?

Ahead of the two-year anniversary of the end of the Tigray war, Gebreselassie Kahsay, a lecturer at Mekele University in Tigray's capital, reflected on the fragile peace in Ethiopia's northernmost region.

"Some say the Pretoria agreement stopped the gunfire, but the genocide hasn't ended. Genocide is still being committed against Tegaru [Tigrayans]," he said.

The brutal two-year conflict saw Ethiopian government forces, allied regional militias and troops from neighboring Eritrea clash with Tigrayan rebels, resulting in an estimated 600,000 deaths and reports of widespread atrocities against civilians committed by the warring sides.

In November 2022, the African Union mediated peace talks in Pretoria, South Africa, leading to an agreement for a "permanent cessation of hostilities" between Tigrayan regional forces and the Ethiopian government. At the time, the AU's Horn of Africa envoy, Olusegun Obasanjo, said the fighting parties had also agreed to "systematic, orderly, smooth and coordinated disarmament."

For many in Tigray, the violence and suffering continue despite the peace deal.

'Civilians are not safe'

Kahsay told DW that the peace accord has not been fully implemented, but "rather it is a failure" because it did not restore Tigray territories.

"Because of this, the inhabitants or internally displaced people of western Tigray, Gulomekeda and Irob are not returning home. Although there are some returners in the southern part of Tigray, they are not protected. The civilians are not safe," he added.

According to the UN, the fighting displaced nearly 1.7 million people and left millions of Tigrayans with physical and psychological injuries.

Medhanie Mulaw, a professor at Ulm University in southern Germany, said the peace agreement was made between the Tigray People's Liberation Front  (TPLF) and the Ethiopian government, and did not involve the civilians.

He said that the two parties are "primarily interested in staying in power at any cost" rather than addressing problems on the ground.

"I don't believe that especially the humanitarian crisis, like getting back to territories of Tigray and also repatriation of of people that have been displaced [...] seem to be top of the agenda," said Mulaw.

Mulaw said the agreement is often disregarded, with no consequences for unfulfilled commitments.

"The lack of the push of the mediators, basically the US and also the African Union, seem to contribute to the ineffective implementation of the agreement," he added.

Health systems still in shambles

Before the war, Tigray's health system was "one of the strongest in the country," according to Nimrat Kaur, a project coordinator for Doctors Without Borders. Kaur added that the conflict left 89% of Tigray's health facilities damaged and stripped of equipment.

When journalists from press agency AFP visited a hospital in the northern Tigray town of Shiraro, they observed crowded waiting rooms, with many patients sitting on the floor, and a long line stretched out from the pharmacy. Some patients who spoke to the journalists said they are not receiving "good treatment."

Another issue plaguing the region's health system is the lack of funding. Gebrehiwot Mezgebe, the director of the hospital in Shiraro, estimates the health center, which caters to a population of more than 1 million, including tens of thousands of displaced people, needs 100 million birr (€763,000/$832,000) per year. But the federal government is currently providing just 4 million birr, Gebrehiwot said.

More funds are unlikely, given the dire state of Ethiopia's finances and overall reconstruction costs in Tigray estimated at more than $20 billion.

Conflict now trickling to other regions

In the Amhara region of Ethiopia which borders Tigray, fierce clashes between the Fano militia group and the Ethiopian National Defense Force have intensified since April 2023. The conflict began when the Ethiopian government wanted to dismantle regional special forces. The violence has since escalated, with rising civilian casualties across towns in Amhara.

Mulaw told DW the current conflicts in the Amhara region are "orchestrated or controlled or governed by the Ethiopian government."

"So there is little or no organized information from the other end," he said. The conflict, Mulaw added, is poorly reported and the interest from the international community in comparison to to the Tigray war is lower.

The government has previously clamped down, cutting mobile internet access and detaining journalists covering the crisis.

Is lasting peace within reach?

The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) recently decided to withdraw from the Ethiopian National Dialogue process, citing concerns over a lack of "inclusivity" and "transparency." In a statement released on October 20, the group highlighted the absence of key political actors from Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray, stating that ongoing conflicts in these regions make the current dialogue "one-sided and incapable of delivering genuine peace."

The ONLF is the latest political party to criticize the national dialogue process which was set up by the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to establish common ground on contentious issues.

There is lack of clarity of the role of the government in the process of the commission, said Mulaw — "is the government the overseer of the discussion, or is the government the participant in the discussion?"

"Unless you solve this, people will doubt that whether this will achieve the purpose that it's meant to achieve," he said, adding that external neutral parties should be involved as well.

On the possible solutions, lecturer Kahsay said there needs to be a council that assesses why the Pretoria agreement is not beikng implemented and enforced. "This should be done as quickly as possible," he said.

Edited by: Benita van Eyssen