Libya at a crossroads

When the Supreme Election Commission initially announced the postponement of Libya's parliamentary elections, setting a date of July 7, it justified the decision on logistical and administrative grounds. Shortly before, the vice-president of the commission had resigned in protest for what he alleged were violations of the law by the election body.

In reality, however, the postponement was not just the result of the above-mentioned difficulties, but was due instead to Libya's very complex political situation. The question is: can Libya even conduct free and fair elections?

Due to the unstable security situation, a poorly functioning judiciary and ineffectual political leadership up and down the country, it would seem next to impossible to hold broadly democratic and fair elections.

Nine months after revolutionary forces captured Tripoli, the country's capital, in particular, is suffering from a frightening lack of security.  This is especially true at night along the coast, in the southern district of Abu Salim and in several suburbs. Armed militias – so-called 'revolutionary corps' – control entire sections of the capital and have other cities, like Benghazi, Misurata and Zintan, solidly under their wing.

Out of control

One of these militias occupied Tripoli's international airport in early June, effectively shutting down air traffic for two whole days. The transitional government, appointed by Libya's post-war Transition Council, is having huge difficulties getting a new judiciary up and running and coping with the rapidly deteriorating security situation all across the country.

This incapacity has even led to the Transition Council being unable to guarantee the security of the prime minister's office, where an attack two months go left one person dead.

The situation is no better outside the capital. In Sabha, in the south, there are de facto no administrative or security organs answering to the government or under its control. The same is true in al-Kufra in southeastern Libya. Elsewhere, Bani Walid, a city southwest of Tripoli, withdrew from government oversight months ago. Control is now in the hands of tribal leaders and other local notables of the Warfalla clan, who are renowned for their courage and pronounced nationalistic sentiment.

Two weeks ago, pitched battles broke out between the Mashoshyoun tribe and several armed militias around the city of Mizda, west of Tripoli, killing more than a hundred people. Many others were injured and an estimated 400 family that were forced to flee are now living in southern Libya. The fighting also spread to other smaller towns in the area, such as East and West Qariyat. The region remains tense under a shaky ceasefire.

The city of Tawergha, near Misurata, is a ghost town. People fled their homes in the wake of violence; their homes were plundered and in many cases burned to the ground. Once a city of 30,000, there is now no one left in Tawergha. Even the Supreme Election Commission had to admit that neither voters nor candidates could be registered there.

Benghazi, Libya's second largest city, has also been the scene of clashes between supporters of the country's planned federalist structures, Islamists, who want to introduce sharia law, and remnants of a variety of armed groups. Violent incidents occur regularly.

In the meantime, the tribes which might be called "anti-revolutionary" – such as the Warfalla, Gaddafa and segments of the Tarhona and Mashoshyoun – have banded together after a conference in Bani Walid and Sabha to more effectively defend their interests. Earlier, the Transition Council had tried to convene a "conference of national reconciliation", but failed.

Democracy blockade

At the political level several hindrances exist which stand in the way of conducting free elections. Even if the vote were to take place as planned, it would neither be politically inclusive, nor truly binding for the population – not to mention democratic.

The main stumbling block is the lack of transparency within the transitional government, the widespread financial and administrative corruption, the embezzlement of public funds and the preferential treatment given to certain regions.

Furthermore, Libya's election law has a range of shortcomings. In particular, it gives some groups an advantage over others, especially the Islamists. Even
Fathi al-Baja, in charge of political affairs on the Transition Council, has admitted that the way the law is written it gives Libya's Muslim Brotherhood a distinct advantage to gain a majority in parliament.

The Transition Council also made a number of disastrous legislative decisions – specifically Law No. 50, which burdens the state with enormous financial commitments to compensate all imprisoned victims of the former Gadhafi regime, while not paying anything to victims of revolutionary violence, or the aerial bombardments of NATO forces.

Another piece of legislation – Law 38, Article 4 - also grants an amnesty to all "revolutionaries", no matter what their offense, as long as it served the "welfare of the revolution, or its defense and successful completion." International human rights organizations have demanded that this law be repealed.

Divided nation

Nevertheless, the main hindrance to holding free and fair elections is the deep divisions within Libyan society – a consequence of eight months of civil war, which, after massive NATO support, culminated in the demise of Moammar Gadhafi.

Such a division in a tribal society like Libya's cements, even more, the hostilities felt between the many different ethnic groups. This is a fatal development, considering the political polarization, in a country that is disintegrating into its disparate parts based purely on which tribe you belong to.

Even so, the vast majority of Libyans wanted elections as soon as possible because they hope they will bring more security, stability and institutions based on the rule of law. And, most of all, they hope they can soon return to normal lives.

Mustafa El-Fituri is a Libyan political scientist and recipient of the 2010 Samir-Kassir-Award for Freedom of the Press. / gb
Editor: Simon Bone