Disaster looms
May 26, 2009
Meeting at conferences in Paris and Copenhagen, political leaders said the "earth's destiny" could be determined by negotiations to be held in Copenhagen in December. German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel added on Tuesday in Paris that the December talks were likely headed for disaster.
"There is no movement," Gabriel said before the conclusion of a two-day preparatory meeting of ministers from 16 industrialized nations in the French capital. "The expectations we all had ... have not been fulfilled."
Gabriel said participants at the Paris meeting did little more than repeat their already well-established positions.
No real progress
There have been no real advances (in discussions) between emerging economies and industrialized nations, neither in regard to the question of how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions nor in how we are to finance adaptations or technology transfer," he said.
Gabriel added that under President Barack Obama, the US government is "much more willing to contribute" than it had been previously. But the Americans were also unable to bring movement to the negotiations, he said.
The 192-nation process under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims at securing cuts in emissions of heat-trapping carbon gases and building defenses for poor countries most exposed to changing weather patterns.
It would go into effect after 2012, when the current provisions of the convention's Kyoto Protocol expire.
Momentum building?
In Copenhagen, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the climate negotiations would be "extremely difficult" but added that he thought momentum was building.
"There is now a new situation that would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago," he said, referring to commitments signaled by China and the United States. "Some of our partners, who a few years ago denied the existence of the climate change problem, are now discussing the texts for a possible agreement."
One of the highest hurdles to a deal is the demand from developing countries that industrialized nations, which are mainly responsible for today's warming, commit to large cuts in future carbon emissions.
China has demanded reductions of at least 40 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. Supporters say a cut of this order will encourage the big developing countries - led by China, now the world's number-one emitter by some estimates - to give ground.
US proposal falls short
At the moment, the European Union is the only advanced economic area that has pledged to cut emissions on such a scale. The EU has said it aims to reduce emissions when compared to 1990 by 20 percent by 2020 and offered to cut them by 30 percent if other industrialized nations also do so.
The United States has proposed reducing America's greenhouse gas emissions by 14 percent by 2020 compared to their 2005 level. Analysts say this roughly translates to a 3 percent cut from 1990 levels.
After calling the US proposal "insufficient," French Environment Minister Jean-Louis Borloo said it was crucial that leaders "work in a very imaginative fashion" to achieve a consensus among rich countries to cut between 25 percent and 40 percent.
"The world's destiny will probably be at stake in Copenhagen," he said. "Copenhagen is not a retrograde vision, it's not the start of negative growth, but a new start for strong, sustainable, sober carbon development."
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Editor: Chuck Penfold