Mainstream parties suffering losses

Is such pronounced diversity of political parties normal?

It seems that the era of the big, mainstream parties that spoke to a wide cross-section of the population is nearing an end. In almost all Western democracies, there's been a noticeable splintering of the party landscape. In the 1980s, the Greens established themselves as a new party that - as was the case in Germany - was soon strong enough to be represented in parliament and remain a force to be reckoned with. Since the 1990s, it's mainly been the right-wing populist parties, and they also seem to have established themselves. For well over a year now the refugee crisis has helped cement these parties' standing.

What are the reasons for this change?

Professor Uwe Jun from the University of Trier says "that society has become much more strongly diversified." Other values, opinions, and lifestyles have emerged, "and they are not resonating with the big parties anymore, because the big parties are far too broad, and don't stand for specific interests." That is challenging the very existence of mainstream parties. Professor Oskar Niedermayer of the Free University in Berlin adds that the big parties have had to "bundle very different interests" in order to remain big. The refugee question has shown how divided society is, and how tough that's been for the mainstream parties to address.

Is having more parties in parliament good or bad for democracy?

Jun says that it's both "positive and important in representative democracies that a parliament reflects the different values, interests, and opinions of the population."

Niedermayer did note the federal parliamentary election in 2013, when both the liberal Free Democrats and the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) fell short of the 5 percent hurdle and were thus unable to represent the interests of their supporters.

But on the whole, parliamentary thresholds are largely accepted because they prevent a large number of very small parties from entering parliament. Both political scientists see possible problems arising from the increased fragmentation when it comes to forming governments, as the different parties may be unwilling or unable to build a coalition.

Which countries have a particularly large range of political parties?

A classic example in Europe is Italy. Since the end of World War II until the 1990s, Rome repeatedly had coalition governments of up to six parties. Since it's almost impossible to reach a consensus with so many partners, and given the considerable ideological differences, the coalitions often failed within a short time frame.

So which countries are most unlike Italy?

In Europe, the United Kingdom has long been a classic example of the two-party system. The main reason for this is the country's first-past-the-post system. Only the person who wins their constituency gets a seat in the lower house; all the others go home empty handed. More parties are currently represented in the British parliament than in the Bundestag, but the British system almost always ensures that there's a clear majority, and with it, stable government conditions. There have been coalitions, such as that of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats under the first David Cameron government, but they are rare.

In Germany, former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt was a fan of the first-past-the-post system, because of the resulting clarity. But his attempt to introduce this system in Germany never found much support.

Up until the 1980s, Austria was also in this group, with the special case that the Social Democrats and the conservative Austrian People's Party formed grand coalitions for almost two-thirds of the period following World War II. It was precisely this "eternal grand coalition" aimed at consensus building that led to the rise of the Freedom Party, or FPÖ.

And up until a few years ago, another classic two-party system could be found in Spain, with its conservative Popular Party and the Socialists. Today, there are four parties. Jun says that they are now having problems governing because "classic camps" had become established in Spain, and neither camp was able to obtain a majority.

How will Germany's party system change?

Jun doesn't see any threat to the ability to govern in a five- or six-party system. He says the German parties have formed a sort of "coalition stability" and that after forming a government, they would develop a mechanism for building compromise and consensus over the entire legislative period.

Niedermayer also doesn't see any "danger that Germany will develop the kind of circumstances common in Italy." Should a complicated coalition building process fail, the "two mainstream parties could shoulder the impact." Niedermayer is critical of introducing a majority electoral system like in Britain. He says the primary goal of such a system is forming a government that's capable of acting. In the worst case, a defeated minority goes without representation, "because the majority is the majority." He says proportional representation is much better at reflecting various interests in parliament. "We should keep [the current German] system, even if government formation were to become more difficult as a result of stronger fragmentation of our party system," he said.