Baltic Bathwater
January 22, 2008
Water temperatures could increase by 2 degrees to 4 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100 if current rates continued. Air temperatures could rise even more along Germany's Baltic coast, according to a study released this week.
Researchers at the Institute for Coastal Research (IfK) in Geesthacht, Germany, near Hamburg, analyzed temperatures readings from the past 100 years for the entire Baltic region to draw conclusions for the study.
The study showed that average temperatures in basin regions had risen 0.85 degrees C over the past century -- that is 0.1 degree C faster than general global air temperatures.
Northern, southern Baltic affected differently
Calling the study the Baltic Sea's equivalent to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report issued in December, Hans von Storch, the IfK's director, said average air temperatures on the Scandinavian side of the sea were rising even faster than on the German and Polish side.
"Should intensive measures to combat climate change not bring about desired results, it is plausible that air temperatures at the end of this century could increase by 4 to 6 degrees Celsius in the northern Baltic Sea region," he said. "On the southern side, which includes large parts of Poland and eastern Germany, temperatures could increase from 3 to 5 degrees."
While calling the predictions made by the models credible, von Storch said they were not guarantees of the future.
"The climate scenarios are plausible, but often simplified descriptions of possible futures," he said. "They are not definite predictions."