Making Way for Merkel

When Tony Blair flew to Berlin on Tuesday for talks on climate change with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, there was more to the meeting than just two international figures attempting to keep the slowly turning wheels of environmental politics going.

While the British prime minister arrived in the German capital intent on capitalizing on the slight recent shift in global thinking towards tackling climate change by discussing plans with the current EU president and leader of the G8, Blair was also seizing what many observers see as his last chance to leave a positive legacy when his premiership comes to an end.

Blair has embarked on many missions during his 10-year tenure in Downing Street. His desire to be remembered for one great success on the global stage has led him to pursue campaigns to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and bring peace to the Middle East, to rebuild the bridges between the United States and Europe, and to bring the world together in a binding international agreement on climate change.

The war in Iraq put paid to both Blair's influence in the Middle East and his credibility as the link between Europe and the US. His visit to Berlin shows, that with time running out, he has to work with the woman who has replaced him as the point person on all the major issues he held dear if he wants to go down in history as the leader who attempted to save the world from environmental disaster.

Merkel getting results in the Middle East

Merkel's more pragmatic and candid approach to the volatile situation in the Middle East, as seen during her recent peacemaking tour of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, has so far achieved more than Blair could have ever expected from his own efforts.

Merkel personally persuaded US President George W. Bush to accept the link between Iraq and a wider Middle East settlement; encouraged the Americans to revive the Mideast Quartet negotiating forum and rallied a number of Arab states behind her vision of peace.

In another example where she has seemingly succeeded where Blair failed, Merkel has kept Germany free from Washington's apron strings in pursuing dialogue with Iran and Syria, and a two-state solution of the Arab-Israeli conflict while maintaining good relations with the White House.

Meanwhile Blair is left to privately rue his decision to join the US in the war against Iraq while Germany takes the initiative in pushing for a resolution in the Middle East, according to Mark Halsey, author of the book "Blair's Legacy."

"Iraq pretty much killed his dream of securing peace in the Middle East," Halsey said. "His attempts to save his tarnished reputation in the region by pressing for movement on the Arab-Israeli peace process also failed.

"He was defeated by Washington's pro-Israeli neoconservatives, who believe Israel should be free to settle its conflict with the Palestinians, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon on its own terms," Halsey added. "That ended any real hope of Blair leading the way in any peace process, or the Americans letting him take the lead."

While Germany's Nazi past will never allow it to put serious pressure on Israel, Merkel has maintained a level of independence in her dealing in the Middle East, which has to some extent met with US acceptance and support.

A challenging trans-Atlantic relationship

After the obvious divisions between the US and much of Europe over the Iraq war, the Bush administration expressed relief after Germany's 2005 election when it found a leader it could be civil with after Bush's relationship with Merkel's predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, descended into icy silence after the war began.

Even as US-German relations are back to normal on the surface after the Schröder years, Germany and the US do not share all the same interests, strategies and perceptions. Iraq and climate change being the clearest examples. Meanwhile, Merkel's boldest trans-Atlantic initiative -- an economic zone between Europe and the US -- has also raised little excitement in Washington.

Despite the differences, it is now Merkel and not Blair that the Americans come to talk to on the current hot topics. US experts say the Bush administration views Merkel as the "anchor point" for its dealings with the EU. While Blair is seen as a lame duck premier who has served his purpose, Merkel is a leader on the rise.

"She's the big player in Europe right now," Kurt Volker, the Bush administration's principal deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, was quoted as saying after Merkel’s visit to Washington earlier this year.

Marginalized Blair seeks climate agreement

Blair is expected to stand down as prime minister this spring. But before he does, he wants to sign off on a new environmental agreement which would bind all the main players to a set of goals on the stabilization of emissions and the establishment of a global price for carbon trading.

Ironically, as Blair pursues his last remaining legacy option, Angela Merkel is the person best equipped to take the lead in the global climate debate. As a physicist and the former environment minister who negotiated the Kyoto Protocol for Germany in 1997, Merkel knows that the basic science of climate change is no longer in dispute. She also knows that the scale and urgency of the challenge the world faces is worse than previously thought.

As well as chairing the EU spring summit in March, where leaders will make major decisions on the future of climate and energy security policies, Merkel will put climate change at the top of the agenda for this year's G8 summit in Heiligendamm in June. She will then lead the negotiations for securing agreement on the principles of a more comprehensive deal ahead of a United Nations meeting in Bali later in the year.

By then, Blair may have played his last part on the world stage; watching from the wings as Germany's first female chancellor makes progress on all the issues that eluded him during his time as prime minister.