Germany: Merkel's bloc falls behind center-left SPD

The Social Democrats (SPD) emerged one percentage point ahead of Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats, according to an opinion poll published Tuesday.

It's the first time since October 2006 that the center-left party has pulled ahead, and it comes a month ahead of Germany's federal election.

Merkel is due to step down after the election, with her allies divided over the future of the conservative bloc.

What do the figures show?

The poll by polling firm Forsa shows the SPD 2 percentage points up compared with a week ago — on 23% — while Merkel's CDU/CSU union slipped to 22%. 

The Greens, until recently hot on the heels of the CDU/CSU in second place, slipped down a further point to 18% according to the survey conducted for German broadcasters RTL and NTV.

For other parties there was no change. The pro-market liberal Free Democrats (FPD) remained on 12%, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on 10%, and the far-left Left (Linke) party on 6%.

The polling for the CDU/CSU is the lowest since Forsa was established as a polling organization in 1984.

A previous poll, published by research institute INSA on Sunday showed the SPD and CDU/CSU level on points for the first time since April 2017.

What could this mean for the new parliament?

According to Forsa's calculations, a repetition of the figures on election day would give the SPD 195 seats out of 775 in Germany's lower house, the Bundestag.

That compares with 190 for the CDU/CSU and 152 for the Greens. The FDP would win 102 seats, the Linke 51, and the AfD 85.

While no two-party combination would be capable of mustering the 338 needed for a majority, four three-way combinations would be possible. 

German coalition: Named after the colors of each party — the CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP — which reflect those on the German flag. 

Jamaica coalition: The CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP — whose respective colors reflect Jamaica's national flag. Efforts to build a coalition of these parties failed in the wake of the 2017 general election. 

Traffic Light: Comprising the SPD, FDP and the Greens. 

Left wing alliance: Made up of the SPD, the Greens, and the Left party. 

Why the apparent change?

The CDU/CSU alliance — comprising the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian CSU sister party — had enjoyed a strong lead going into the summer.

However, it has been on the back foot after a series of gaffes from Armin Laschet, the conservative candidate to succeed Merkel.
In July, he was pictured laughing in the background with local officials as German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gave a speech mourning victims of deadly flooding in western Germany.

Since then, the conservative alliance has tried in vain to halt a decline in support.

The Greens, despite gaining a bump in support earlier this year, have lost momentum since their chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock was caught up in a plagiarism scandal.

In a survey published on Friday, 41% of voters said they would prefer the SPD candidate Olaf Scholz to be the next chancellor, compared with only 16% for Laschet.

rc/dj (dpa, Reuters)