Keita's potential exit highlights Bundesliga talent drain
January 12, 2018Kevin De Bruyne, Son Heung-Min, Roberto Firmino, Joel Matip, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Ilkay Gündogan, Leroy Sane, Sead Kolasinac, Granit Xhaka. As well as the basis for a pretty sensational side, that's also a list of names of players who have left the Bundesliga for the Premier League over the last three seasons.
Add in the names of Jürgen Klopp, David Wagner and Pep Guardiola and it's starkly apparent that Germany's top flight is in real danger of becoming a stepping stone for its English equivalent.
Speculation that Liverpool would pay an extra €20 million ($24 million) to sign Naby Keita in January rather than at the end of the season reached such a pitch on Thursday morning that RB Leipzig coach Ralph Hasenhuttl was forced in to the unusual step of issuing a denial of press rumors.
"The situation is the same as it was all season - there's no reason for us to let Naby Keita go early," he told British public broadcaster the BBC.
That €20 million, added to the €75 million fee initially agreed, is a drop in the ocean to Klopp's side, particularly in light of the €160 million they're set to pocket from the sale of Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona. But to Leipzig, one of Germany's richest clubs, a €20 million transfer fee would represent the second most they've ever spent on a player.
There have also been rumors that the dynamic Guinean midfielder - whose form has been more erratic this season than last - has had his head turned, with Sky Sports Germany claiming he was "reserved [and] almost grumpy" at training on Friday.
The Red Bull-backed club are one of a very select group of German sides who have the ability to resist big offers for their players, thanks to the financial assistance offered by the energy drink manufacturer.
But they were forced in to the sale when Liverpool matched Keita's release clause to secure the original deal and, on the face of it, this seems like a strange time for Leipzig to let Keita go. They have the money to hold out and that €20 million would be dwarfed by the amount they'd lose out on should Keita's absence force them to miss out on Champions League football next year - a very real possibility given Leipzig's patchy league form this term. But the theory is that Leipzig need money to stay on the right side of Financial Fair Play rules, given the disparity between their spending and income in recent years.
While the riches on offer in the Premier League have indisputably accelerated the Bundesliga's talent drain, for 17 of the 18 clubs one of the biggest threats is much closer to home. In those three seasons, serial champions Bayern Munich have signed Niklas Süle, Sebastian Rudy, Sandro Wagner, Mats Hummels, Joshua Kimmich and Sven Ulreich, mostly from clubs who threatened their dominance.
Should Keita move to Anfield early, it will further re-enforce the notion that Bayern's dominance and the lack of top players in their peak years mean the Bundesliga's appeal is waning when compared to other European leagues. On the other hand, there are plenty willing to argue that stadium atmosphere, low ticket prices and the promotion of homegrown talent are more important to Germany's domestic competition than big transfers and big names, a position Borussia Dortmund CEO Hans-Joachim Watzke takes.
"I have no fear of the English (league)," he said in a 2016 interview. "There is no need for the Bundesliga to be shy. From a football perspective, it's just as good as the Premier League.
"We have superb stadiums filled with passionate fans, the average attendance is much higher, we play great football and we have first-class academies."
All of that may be true, but it's unlikely to be of much immediate comfort to RB Leipzig fans should one of their best players leave.
It may well be that the Red Bulls recover when he does go — whether that be now or at the end of the season — but Wolfsburg, once considered the Bundesliga's premiere dubiously rich club, are a cautionary tale of what can happen when you allow your best players to leave and market forces mean the money dries up.
But RB's concerns may well lie in the shorter term, with a crunch clash against Schalke — who beat the Red Bulls on the opening day — to come on Saturday and a tricky Europa League tie against Napoli looming next month.
For German football, the questions posed are of a longer term nature and Keita's move — whenever it happens — will once again force an assesment of where priorities lie.